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Tropical Storm Dora Public Advisory Number 13
2017-06-28 04:35:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280235 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 ...DORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 112.3W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 112.3 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west- northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Dora is forecast to become a remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dora will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico through early Wednesday, and also affect portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-06-28 04:35:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 28 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 280235 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0300 UTC WED JUN 28 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 1 11(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Advisory Number 13
2017-06-28 04:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 28 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280235 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0300 UTC WED JUN 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 112.3W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 112.3W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.1N 113.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.7N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 112.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Dora Graphics
2017-06-27 22:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2017 20:47:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2017 21:22:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-06-27 22:42:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 272042 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 The convection associated with Dora continues to decrease, with the center now exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection. Various satellite intensity estimates range from 54-77 kt, while a recent ASCAT overpass suggested winds of about 45 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, and it is possible that this is generous. Dora should continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over colder sea surface temperatures, and the system is expected to become a remnant low in 36 h or less. The official intensity forecast is again in close agreement with the model consensus ICON. The initial motion is 290/11. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should maintain the west-northwestward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, over the next 36-48 h. After that, a westward or south of westward motion is expected. The official forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies to the south of the model consensus between 24-48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 19.6N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 20.1N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 20.6N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 21.2N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 21.7N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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