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Hurricane Dora Graphics
2017-06-27 10:36:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2017 08:36:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2017 09:22:31 GMT
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Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-06-27 10:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270834 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Over the past several hours, the satellite presentation of Dora has degraded with cooling eye temperatures and breaks in the eyewall convection noted in the northwestern quadrant. Dvorak estimates are dropping and support a wind speed of 70 kt for this advisory. Dora is moving into cooler waters and a drier airmass, which should cause steady weakening over the next couple of days. Model guidance has come into better agreement on Dora becoming a tropical storm later today and a tropical depression by Thursday. The NHC intensity prediction is on the low side of the guidance since ASCAT confirmed Dora is a rather small tropical cyclone, and these types of systems are known to disappear rather quickly in the cold eastern Pacific waters. It would not be surprising if Dora dissipated faster than shown below. Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. A large deep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a west-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally westward in the low-level flow before opening up into a trough by day 4. Guidance has shifted slightly northward during this cycle, perhaps due to a deeper model representation of Dora at the current time. The new NHC track forecast reflects that trend and lies a bit north of the previous one, close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.8N 109.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 19.3N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.9N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 20.4N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 20.8N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-06-27 10:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270831 PWSEP4 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0900 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 25 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 34 51 13(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ISLA SOCORRO 50 9 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 11(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Dora (EP4/EP042017)
2017-06-27 10:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DORA STARTING TO WEAKEN... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 the center of Dora was located near 18.8, -109.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Dora Public Advisory Number 10
2017-06-27 10:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270831 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 ...DORA STARTING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 109.2W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 109.2 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected today and Wednesday, with a turn toward the west expected by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to pass over or just north of Socorro Island later today, and remain well south of the Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Dora could become a remnant low by Thursday. Satellite data indicate that Dora is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula today through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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