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Hurricane DORA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2017-06-26 22:40:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 262040 PWSEP4 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 2100 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 3 52(55) 5(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 20N 110W 50 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 71(73) 15(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 21(21) 28(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 15(20) 20(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Hurricane DORA (EP4/EP042017)

2017-06-26 22:40:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DORA MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 the center of DORA was located near 17.8, -107.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane DORA Public Advisory Number 8

2017-06-26 22:40:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 262040 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 ...DORA MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 107.3W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 107.3 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple days. On the forecast track, the center of Dora will continue to move away from the coast of southwestern Mexico and pass well to the south of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Dora is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of up to 1 inch along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan into this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane DORA Forecast Advisory Number 8

2017-06-26 22:40:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 262040 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 2100 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.3W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.3W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.4N 108.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.5N 112.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.8N 113.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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