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Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-06-27 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271433 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Dora's satellite presentation continues to degrade. Although an eye is still evident, the coverage and depth of deep convection has been diminishing. The current intensity is set at 65 kt based on a blend of T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is currently traversing sub-26 deg C SSTs, and the waters beneath Dora will continue to cool for the next couple of days. The system should weaken to a tropical storm later today and degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, or less. The official intensity forecast is in close agreement with the model consensus ICON. Center fixes yield a continued west-northwestward motion of 300/11 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should maintain the west-northwestward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, over the next day or two. In 48-72 hours, a more westward track of the weakening cyclone is anticipated. The official track forecast is a little north of the previous one, but south of the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.3N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.8N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 21.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Dora (EP4/EP042017)
2017-06-27 16:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 the center of Dora was located near 19.3, -110.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Dora Public Advisory Number 11
2017-06-27 16:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 271432 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 ...DORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 110.2W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 110.2 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h. This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected today and Wednesday, with a turn toward the west expected by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to pass just north of Socorro Island later today, and remain well south of the Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dora could become a remnant low by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula today through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-06-27 16:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 271432 PWSEP4 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 1500 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 19 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA SOCORRO 34 18 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Dora Forecast Advisory Number 11
2017-06-27 16:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 271431 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 1500 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.2W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 80SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.2W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 109.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.8N 111.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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