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Post-Tropical Cyclone DORA Forecast Advisory Number 15
2017-06-28 16:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 28 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 281434 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 1500 UTC WED JUN 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.9W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.9W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.7N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.3N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Dora Graphics
2017-06-28 10:41:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Jun 2017 08:41:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Jun 2017 09:22:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-06-28 10:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280836 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 Microwave images indicate that Dora stopped producing deep convection soon after 0000 UTC, and all cloud tops warmed above -50C by 0245 UTC. The circulation now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Deep convection is unlikely to return due to cold sea surface temperatures, and Dora is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later this morning or this afternoon. Dora has slowed down with an initial motion estimate of 285/9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should maintain Dora on a similar west-northwestward trajectory for the next day or two. Based on the latest surface fields from the GFS and ECMWF models, the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 19.8N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/0600Z 21.2N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1800Z 21.6N 117.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dora (EP4/EP042017)
2017-06-28 10:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DORA FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 the center of Dora was located near 19.8, -113.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dora Public Advisory Number 14
2017-06-28 10:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 ...DORA FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 113.1W ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 113.1 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Dora is expected to degenerate to a remnant low later today. The remnant low should then dissipate by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells affecting the southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula will gradually subside today but could still cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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