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Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 37

2021-08-19 10:42:44| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 18 2021

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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 37

2021-08-19 10:42:14| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 13

2021-08-19 05:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190300 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.5W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.5W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.0N 71.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.3N 72.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 71.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N 70.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 40.4N 69.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 41.8N 68.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 68.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 13

2021-08-19 05:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190300 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 Henris appearance this evening is one of a tropical cyclone that is battling vertical wind shear. The satellite structure has evolved into a large convective plume with overshooting cold -70 to -75 C cloud top temperatures near the center of the convective mass. Underneath the cirrus, Henris structure has remained steady-state, with a SSMIS pass at 2243Z showing a ragged mid-level eye on the 91 GHz channel that remains displaced a bit southeast of the low-level signature on 37 GHz. The latest satellite intensity estimates have a large spread in values ranging from 55-kt up to 80-kt. I have elected to maintain Henris intensity at 60 kt for this advisory, but there is a larger than normal uncertainty in this estimate. The initial motion continues to be just south of due west at 265/8 kt. The short-term track guidance is in general agreement that Henri will continue a general westward motion for the next day or so, as the cyclone is caught to the south of a pronounced mid- to upper-level ridge. However, the models disagree on how far westward Henri is able to advance in the short-term, and these track differences appear to be related to Henri's intensity and vertical depth of the circulation. This track dependency is nicely illustrated by the most recent ECMWF ensemble guidance, where stronger members move further south and west in the short-term, ending up on the left-side of the ensemble mean, while weaker members move slower and more poleward. The deterministic guidance is similar, with the weaker ECMWF and Canadian runs off to the east/right while the stronger GFS and UKMET runs are further left/west. These short-term track differences appear pivotal, because the ridge over Henri is then expected to quickly erode as a mid-latitude trough digs in over the Ohio Valley and becomes negatively tilted over the Mid-Atlantic. The leftward track guidance has Henri interacting with this trough leading to a track forecast much closer to the northeastern US, while the rightward track guidance is not captured by this feature, and stay further offshore escaping out to sea. In general, the mean of the track guidance is very similar, or just a shade to the right of the previous cycle. I have elected to maintain a very similar track to the previous advisory, splitting the difference between the previous forecast just left, and the reliable HCCA consensus aid just right. As mentioned previously, a NOAA Gulfstream IV aircraft has been scheduled to investigate the synoptic environment of Henri tomorrow and will hopefully provide more data ingested into the model guidance to reduce the large track spread seen in the current cycle. Henri is now under moderate northerly shear that is forecast to increase to 25-30 knots over the next 24 hours. While this would ordinarily weaken the tropical cyclone, the system also remains under very warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures that are somewhat above normal for this time of year. Due to these offsetting factors, the latest NHC intensity forecast maintains Henri at 60-kt for the next 24 hours. Afterwards, the shear is forecast to decrease as the storm turns more poleward directly under the upper-level ridge axis. This favorable synoptic pattern should allow Henri to intensify and gradual intensification is shown up to a 80-kt peak in 72-h. The NHC intensity forecast is more or less in the mean of the large guidance spread, though it should be noted that the regional hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) have somewhat stronger peak intensities later in the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. The forecast track of Henri remains near the northeast coast of the U.S. this weekend and early next week, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada remains a distinct possibility. Interests in these areas should closely follow the progress of Henri and check for updates to the forecast. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 29.8N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 30.0N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 32.3N 72.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 34.4N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 36.9N 70.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 40.4N 69.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 41.8N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven

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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 23

2021-08-19 04:55:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190255 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Grace has become a bit better organized during the past several hours. Cuban radar data indicates that the eye and eyewall have become better defined, and reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the inner core circulation has become better defined. There are also occasional attempts at eye formation in satellite imagery. However, these changes have not yet resulted in significant intensification, with the maximum winds remaining near 70 kt and the central pressure hovering near 988 mb. One possible restraint on development is a dry slot that is seen wrapping around the central core in both satellite imagery and Cuban radar data. The center has jogged a little to the left during the past few hours, and the initial motion is now 280/16. The hurricane should continue to move generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 24-36 h, followed by a westward to west-southwestward motion from 36-48 h. This motion should bring the center over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next 12 h, followed by passage across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico or the Bay of Campeche to a second landfall in mainland Mexico between 48-60 h. After that, the cyclone should continue moving into the mountains of Mexico until it dissipates. The new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous forecast, and it lies near the various consensus models. Except for the aforementioned dry slot, conditions appear favorable for intensification before landfall on the Yucatan peninsula. While not explicitly show in the intensity forecast, Grace could reach an intensity of 75-80 kt before it reaches Yucatan. The cyclone should weaken some as it crosses the peninsula, then re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico until it reaches mainland Mexico. After final landfall in Mexico, Grace is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Mexico just after 72 h. The remnants of Grace are likely to emerge in the Pacific and possibly re-develop there, but the uncertainty of whether this will be the original center or a new center precludes forecast points over the Pacific at this time. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for portions of mainland Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning during the next several hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge in portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for part of this area. 3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 19.8N 85.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 20.3N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 20/1200Z 20.7N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 20.5N 96.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 22/0000Z 19.7N 101.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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