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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-08-18 22:47:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 182046 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 67.6W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 67.6W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 67.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.8N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.7N 72.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.2N 71.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 39.3N 70.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 41.4N 69.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 67.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 22

2021-08-18 22:44:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 182044 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 A ragged eye appeared for a while on visible satellite imagery, but it has recently been obscured by cumulonimbus tops. The overall cloud pattern has been maintaining its organization with some convective banding features and very cold cloud tops, mainly over the eastern portion of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is set at 70 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane in a few hours to provide another intensity estimate. Grace will continue to move over waters of very high oceanic heat content prior to reaching the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, which of course favors intensification. Aside from moderate northwesterly shear, a possible impediment to strengthening is a northeast to southwest-oriented shear axis located just to the northwest of the hurricane. Nonetheless, some intensification is anticipated before landfall in Yucatan, with restrengthening over the Bay of Campeche. The official intensity forecast continues to be in general agreement with the multi-model consensus predictions, IVCN and HCCA. Grace is moving west-northwestward, or about 285/14 kt. There has been essentially no change to the track forecast philosophy. Grace should maintain a west-northwestward to westward motion, on the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge, for the next several days. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and about on top of the latest multi-model consensus, TVCA. A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for a portion of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico tonight. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning late tonight or early Thursday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge in portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for part of this area tonight. 3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across the Cayman Islands as well as portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 19.7N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 20.7N 89.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/0600Z 20.9N 92.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 20/1800Z 20.8N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 21/0600Z 20.4N 97.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 99.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 22/1800Z 19.5N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Linda Forecast Information (.shp)

2021-08-18 22:43:10| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 20:43:10 GMT

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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 22

2021-08-18 22:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 182040 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO...INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 83.7W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 83.7W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 83.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.7N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 92.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 94.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 99.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 83.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 35

2021-08-18 22:36:59| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 18 2021

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