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Hurricane Linda Forecast Information (.shp)

2021-08-19 10:57:58| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 08:57:58 GMT

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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 24

2021-08-19 10:55:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190855 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 After a brief convective hiatus between 0400-0700 UTC, deep convection in the inner-core region has increased and become better organized during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Grace more than 4 hours ago reported a central pressure of 986 mb -- down 2 mb from previous passes -- and a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 74 kt on its last leg northbound around 0500 UTC. The 74-kt flight-level wind equates to about a 67-kt surface wind speed. These data supported maintaining a 70-kt intensity at 0600 UTC. The upper-level outflow remains symmetrical and has been expanding somewhat over the past few hours. The initial motion is 280/15 kt based on the earlier recon fixes and passive microwave satellite data. Grace should continue to move generally westward for the next 48 hours, crossing the coast of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula within the next couple of hours, followed by a track across the Yucatan and emergence over the Bay of Campeche by 24 hours, with a subsequent landfall along the eastern coast of mainland Mexico shortly after the 48-hour forecast period. This track scenario is consistent with the latest 0000 UTC global and regional models, which show the strong deep-layer ridge to the north of Grace maintaining its expansive presence across the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and northern Mexico. After the second landfall, Grace is expected to turn west-southwestward and dissipate over the mountains of central Mexico by 72 hours. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies along the northern edge of the tightly packed consensus track models. Given the recent improvement in Grace's inner-core convective structure noted in high-resolution infrared satellite imagery, some slight strengthening to 75 kt could still occur just prior to landfall this morning. Weakening will commence once Grace moves inland over Yucatan, with re-strengthening expected after the cyclone emerges over the Bay of Campeche where the vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt. Grace is expected to be a hurricane when the second landfall occurs along the coast of mainland Mexico, with the cyclone possibly reaching a peak intensity of 75 kt shortly after the 48-hour period. After final landfall in mainland Mexico, Grace should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by 72 hours, if not sooner. The remnants of Grace are expected to emerge over the eastern North Pacific and possibly re-develop there, but the uncertainty of whether this will be the original center or a new center precludes forecast points over the Pacific at this time. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for portions of the Hurricane Watch area of mainland Mexico later this morning or afternoon. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge in portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for part of this area. 3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 20.0N 87.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 20/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 20.1N 97.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/1800Z 19.7N 100.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-08-19 10:54:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190854 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Thu Aug 19 2021 Compared to microwave images from earlier on Wednesday, GMI microwave data from last evening revealed that Henri's structure had deteriorated somewhat, with convection on the west side of the mid-level eye having mostly dissipated. This degradation is likely the result of strong deep-layer shear and dry air in the mid levels. Satellite intensity estimates have either remained steady or decreased a bit, and Henri's initial intensity is therefore held at 60 kt. This value is supported by two evening scatterometer passes, which had peak winds of 52 kt and 57 kt. The GMI and ASCAT data revealed that the center is slightly farther south than previously estimated, and Henri has been moving south of due west, or 260/8 kt. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes toward the Ohio Valley, and global models are in agreement that this trough will cut off over the central Appalachians in about 48 hours. As a result, the ridge currently steering Henri westward is expected to relocate over the northern Gulf coast, with the cut-off low causing Henri to accelerate northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by late Friday through Sunday. Then, mid-level ridging over Quebec is likely to cause Henri to slow down considerably in the vicinity of southeastern New England or the adjacent offshore waters by Monday. The latest suite of deterministic track models have much less spread compared to on Wednesday, with fairly good agreement on the scenario described above. However, both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to show a wider assortment of solutions, with stronger storms tending to move closer to the U.S. coast and weaker storms moving farther offshore. With the tight clustering of the current guidance, the trajectory of the new NHC track forecast was not changed much from the previous iteration, although it is a little faster during the time that Henri accelerates to the north. The biggest point here is that it's still too soon to know exactly how close Henri's center will get to the coast of New England. The north-northeasterly shear affecting Henri is not expected to abate for another 24-36 hours. Once the shear does decrease, however, warm waters should foster strengthening, up until Sunday when Henri is expected to move north of the Gulf Stream. An increase in southerly shear and Henri's slow motion over the colder waters off New England should then cause weakening on days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is a little below the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, which are being influenced by the seemingly over-aggressive HWRF and COAMPS-TC models, and this new forecast is very similar to the previous prediction. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. late this weekend and early next week, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada remains a distinct possibility. Interests in these areas should closely follow the progress of Henri and check for updates to the forecast. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 29.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 29.5N 70.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 35.7N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 38.2N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 41.1N 69.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 42.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-08-19 10:54:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190854 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 69.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 69.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 69.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.5N 70.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.7N 71.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.2N 70.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 41.1N 69.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 42.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 69.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 24

2021-08-19 10:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190853 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO PUERTO DE ALTAMIRA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..195NE 120SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 86.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.1N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.7N 100.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 87.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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