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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 23

2021-08-19 04:54:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190254 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO PUERTO DE ALTAMIRA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO...INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO PUERTO DE ALTAMIRA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.6W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.6W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 84.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.3N 88.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 96.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.7N 101.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 85.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Linda Forecast Information (.shp)

2021-08-19 04:54:08| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 02:54:08 GMT

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Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 36

2021-08-19 04:52:41| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Aug 18 2021

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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 36

2021-08-19 04:51:40| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 12

2021-08-18 22:49:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 356 WTNT43 KNHC 182049 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 Henri appears a little better organized this afternoon. The storm still has a central dense overcast pattern and there have been hints of an eye evident in visible satellite images. Microwave images continue to show a mid-level eye feature, but the storm does not appear quite as well organized in the low-levels, and the vortex is still titled southward with height. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 55 to 67 kt, and based on that data the initial intensity is nudged up to 60 kt, just below hurricane strength. Henri is moving just south of due west at a slightly faster pace now, 265/8 kt. The storm is expected to continue westward for another 36 hours or so as it moves in the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the north is forecast to begin on Friday when a cutoff low forms over the Ohio Valley and the northeastern U.S. This general northward motion should continue through the weekend as another ridge builds to the east of Henri over the northwestern Atlantic. The models continue their westward shift, and the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted in that direction and no longer shows a northeastward motion out to sea. In particular, the westward adjustment at day 5 was a sizable 150 miles, and even with this shift the NHC forecast is still a little to the east of some of the consensus aids. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecast, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track prediction in future forecast cycles. The storm is currently in an environment of about 15-20 kt of northerly wind shear according to the SHIPS model and analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, which is the reason the vortex is currently titled. The shear should persist for another day or so, and little change in strength seems likely during that time period. However, strengthening is expected on Friday and Saturday as the shear decreases while the storm remains over the Gulf Stream. Some weakening seems likely at days 4 and 5 when the storm is expected to be over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope and only minor changes were made to the previous prediction. Key Messages: 1. The forecast track of Henri has shifted toward the northeast coast of the U.S. this weekend and early next week, increasing the risk of direct storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada during that time. Interests in these areas should closely follow the progress of Henri and check for updates to the forecast. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 29.9N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 29.8N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 32.7N 72.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 35.2N 71.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 39.3N 70.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 41.4N 69.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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