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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Information (.shp)
2021-08-19 22:35:56| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 20:35:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Discussion Number 39
2021-08-19 22:33:51| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 19 2021
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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Advisory Number 39
2021-08-19 22:32:55| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-08-19 16:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191444 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 Grace made landfall as a hurricane near Tulum, Mexico around 0945 UTC (445am CDT). A storm chaser in Tulum reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb at the time of landfall. Since then, the cyclone has moved further inland where observations are far more sparse, and we have no recent in situ observations to assist the intensity analysis. The intensity is therefore set at 55 kt, based in part on the inland decay wind model built into the SHIPS model. The central pressure estimate of 995 mb is likewise uncertain. Some additional weakening is likely this afternoon while Grace continues to cross the Yucatan peninsula. The tropical storm should emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico this evening, and re-strengthening is anticipated shortly thereafter. Environmental conditions are expected to be quite conducive for strengthening, but it will likely take Grace at least a little time to redevelop its inner-core after disruption by land. That could act to limit the rate at which the cyclone will intensify at first. The HWRF and HMON both suggest that the most significant reintensification could occur in the last 12 hours before final landfall occurs in mainland Mexico, and that scenario seems likely. It would not be surprising if Grace strengthened slightly more between the 36 h forecast point over water and the 48 h point inland, particularly if the hurricane moves slightly slower, giving it more time over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, Grace should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Overall, the NHC intensify forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. Grace continues to move to the west near 16 kt. A westward or west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 12 hours or so, after which a strong-deep layer ridge extending well over the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern U.S. will steer Grace westward until landfall. Only minor adjustments were made to the official track forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. Although the tropical cyclone will quickly dissipate after it moves inland, the ridge will likely steer its remnants further westward toward the eastern North Pacific, where it could contribute to the formation of a new tropical cyclone there. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue today across the northern Yucatan Peninsula. 2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 20.2N 88.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 20/1200Z 20.6N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.4N 96.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0000Z 19.6N 101.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 25
2021-08-19 16:43:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191443 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA HERRERO AND THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM TULUM TO CANCUN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CAMPECHE * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 88.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 88.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 88.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.6N 91.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 96.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.6N 101.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 88.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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