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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-07-31 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 310231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 114.6W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 114.6W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.5N 116.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.1N 118.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-07-30 22:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302037 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 An area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring during the past several days over the eastern Pacific, has developed a well-defined surface center, as indicated in a recent scatterometer overpass, and has acquired sufficient organized convection to be classified as a 25-kt tropical depression. The northwesterly shear which has been curtailing genesis over the past couple of days has diminished just enough to allow the system to become better organized, particularly, in the east and south portions of the cyclone. The depression is embedded in weak easterly steering currents created by a deep-layer cut-off low and associated trough situated along 125W. As a result, the depression is temporarily drifting west-southwestward, or 255/4 kt. Large-scale models indicate that the cut-off feature will lift northward during the next 24-36 hours allowing a mid-tropospheric ridge to build in over the eastern Pacific. Accordingly, the cyclone should track generally westward at an increased forward speed beyond mid period. The official forecast follows suit and is based on a blend of the top forecast track performers, HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the multi-model consensus TVCN. Now that the shear is weakening and the upper tropospheric winds are predicted to become more favorable, (easterly, and little more diffluent) steady strengthening is expected while the cyclone traverses deep, warm oceanic temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the IVCN intensity aid and is below the Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical guidance beyond the 72-hour period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.3N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 12.0N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 11.7N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 127.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 11.8N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 12.1N 131.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 12.5N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 13.2N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 13.9N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-07-30 22:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours ago indicated that the area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has strengthened, and is producing 35-40 kt winds on its east side. In addition, satellite images show a fairly persistent area of showers and thunderstorms on the south side of the circulation and the center appears to be fairly well defined in recent visible images. Based on these data, advisories are now being initiated on Tropical Storm Hilda and the initial intensity is estimated to be 40 kt. Hilda is moving westward at about 14 kt and is embedded in the flow on the south side of a sprawling subtropical ridge that extends from the south-central U.S. westward across the subtropical eastern Pacific. A general west-northwestward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or two as the synoptic pattern holds. After that time, a decrease in forward speed is predicted due to a combination of the subtropical ridge weakening and the interactions with the areas of low pressure to the east and west of Hilda. The ECMWF is the slowest model at long range due to it showing the most interaction with the low to Hildas east. The NHC track forecast lies generally near the model consensus and roughly between the GFS and ECMWF models. Hilda appears to be in generally conducive conditions for strengthening with SSTs currently around 28 C, abundant mid-level moisture, and fairly low wind shear. Given that these conditions are expected to persist for another couple of days, steady strengthening is forecast during that time period and Hilda is predicted to become a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours. Beyond a couple of days, however, moderate easterly shear, progressively drier air, and decreasing SSTs should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to the intensity model consensus IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.1N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 12.6N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 13.2N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 13.8N 119.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 14.9N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 15.3N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 16.6N 126.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 18.3N 129.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-07-30 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 30 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 302036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 113.6W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 113.6W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.6N 115.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.2N 117.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.8N 119.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.9N 123.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.3N 124.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.6N 126.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.3N 129.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Schlumberger's Profit Beats Forecast as Margins Soar on Revenue Gains
2021-07-23 15:41:39| OGI
Oilfield services giant Schlumberger NV issued a bullish forecast for 2021 on July 23 as second-quarter profit topped estimates due to surging margins, with a rebound in oil prices boosting demand for its software and equipment.
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