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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-07-31 10:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 310835 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 127.0W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 127.0W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 126.8W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.2N 127.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.1N 128.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.2N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.5N 131.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.8N 132.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.1N 134.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 13.7N 136.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 127.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-07-31 10:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 310834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.7W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.7W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.6N 117.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.1N 119.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.6N 120.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.1N 122.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N 123.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.3N 124.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 17.8N 127.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.9N 131.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-07-31 04:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 310236 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 The depression is struggling. Aside from a stray cell or two, the cyclone has been nearly devoid of deep convection since the diurnal convective minimum earlier this evening. AMSR data near 22Z indicated that multiple weak swirls may be embedded within the broader circulation sampled earlier today by ASCAT. The initial intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory. Confidence in the track forecast is unusually low. The initial position, and therefore also the motion estimate, is highly uncertain due to the disorganized nature of the depression. On top of that, the track guidance is in extremely poor agreement regarding even the basics of the future track of the cyclone. Hilda, located relatively close to the east (about 10 degrees) may have some impact on the depression's track during the next 5 days. In fact, the GFS explicitly forecasts that a binary interaction will occur between the two tropical cyclones. Other models like the ECMWF move both systems steadily, and mostly independently, westward. As a course of least regret, the NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory and multi-model consensus, between those two scenarios. Large changes to the track forecast may be necessary on Saturday if the track guidance begins to converge on a single solution. Warm water and moderate shear could allow for some strengthening during the next few days, if the depression can redevelop and sustain organized convection. The NHC intensity forecast assumes that will happen to some degree and has not been substantially changed. It is also possible that dry air in the environment could continue to inhibit convection as the depression moves westward. In that case, the official intensity forecast could wind up being a little too high. The NHC intensity forecast is well within the guidance envelope, but is a touch above the latest consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 12.5N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 12.4N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 12.3N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 12.4N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 12.7N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 13.1N 131.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 13.4N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 13.8N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-07-31 04:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 802 WTPZ24 KNHC 310233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 126.2W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 126.2W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 126.0W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.4N 126.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 127.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.4N 128.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.7N 130.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.1N 131.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.4N 133.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 135.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 126.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-07-31 04:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Hilda has gotten a little better organized during the past several hours, with the low-level center now near the eastern end of a long convective band that is present in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB, and based on these the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The storm is currently in an environment of light northwesterly vertical wind shear with the bulk of the outflow to the south. Conditions generally appear favorable for strengthening during the next 72 h or so, as Hilda is expected to be over warm sea surface temperatures and in an environment of light to moderate shear. Based on this, the first part of the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast and calls for Hilda to become a hurricane between 24 and 36 h and peak in intensity around 60 h. After that, the forecast becomes less confident. The cyclone is expected to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures after 72 h, and this should cause gradual weakening as indicated in the official forecast. The official forecast for this period has been nudged downward due to the forecast motion over cooler water. However, the GFS and ECMWF models suggest the possibility that Hilda will interact with other nearby systems - the GFS forecasting with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and the ECMWF forecasting interaction with a disturbance to the east. Should either of these interactions occur, Hilda could weaken at a different rate than currently forecast. The initial motion is 290/13. Hilda is located on the south side of a subtropical ridge, and if the storm does not interact with other nearby weather systems a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through the forecast period. The new forecast track is shifted a little north of the previous track, and it lies just to the south of the various consensus models. If Hilda does interact with either Tropical Depression Nine-E or the disturbance to the east, it will lead to erratic motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 13.2N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 13.5N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 14.1N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 16.5N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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