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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-07-31 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 312039 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 Visible and scatterometer satellite data continue to show depression getting stretched further from west-to-east, with the surface circulation now elliptical-shaped about 500 nmi long and 250 nmi wide. A 1757Z ASCAT-B pass revealed an ill-defined low-level circulation center and one 26-kt wind vector 60-70 nmi west of the center. Unlike a few hours ago, deep convection has begun to wane with cloud tops now warmer than -70 deg C. The intensity has been held at 25 kt based on the ASCAT wind data and the overall poor appearance in satellite imagery. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04 kt. The aforementioned ASCAT data suggest that either the center has reformed farther to the southwest near a small burst of deep convection, or that that feature is just a smaller swirl rotating around the larger gyre envelope. Thus, the estimated center location is an average between the previous center position and the small center noted in the ASCAT data. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the previous forecast tack or reasoning. After 72 hours, the models remain is major disagreement on how much, if any, binary interaction occurs between the depression and Tropical Storm Hilda, located about 650 nmi to the east. The new 12Z GFS model remains the most extreme and takes the depression northward on days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF again the weakest with little interaction with Hilda. The remainder of the NHC track guidance lies somewhere in between these two extremes. As in the previous advisory, the best call for now is to punt by remaining close to the previous forecast track, with the new official NHC track forecast still lying inside the southern edge of the guidance envelope between the ECMWF solution to the south and the consensus models farther north. The depression's future intensity, and even its existence as a tropical cyclone, depends heavily on the track over the next 120 hours. A more westward motion as per the ECMWF would keep the cyclone over warmer water and in a more favorable upper-level pattern, whereas a sharp northward motion like the GFS is predicting would take the cyclone over cold SSTs below 25 deg C and into a strong wind shear environment. Another negative factor continues to be the west-to-east stretching of the depression's low-level wind field caused by Tropical Storm Hilda's larger and stronger circulation. As more of the southerly/southwesterly cross-equatorial low-level inflow gets drawn away from the elongated cyclone and into Hilda, most of the depression's inflow will be cooler and drier air trade wind flow coming into the northern semicircle, which would induce weakening. The previous intensity forecast is being maintained for this advisory, which continues to show little strengthening for the next 48 hours, followed by only modest intensification thereafter. However, this remains a low-confidence forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 11.6N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 11.5N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 11.6N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 11.8N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 12.2N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 12.6N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 13.0N 135.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 138.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 15.4N 140.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-07-31 22:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 312038 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.4W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.4W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.5N 129.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.6N 130.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.8N 131.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.2N 133.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.6N 134.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.0N 135.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 138.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.4N 140.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-07-31 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 312036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 After strengthening quickly overnight and early this morning, Hilda's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. There continues to be hints of an eye feature in satellite images and deep convection is organized in curved bands around that feature. The latest Dvorak estimates are 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 4.0/65 kt from SAB, and 4.1/67 kt from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. A recent ASCAT-B overpass showed a maximum wind of around 50 kt southeast of the center, but the coarse resolution of the instrument is unlikely to capture the storm's true intensity. Based on a combination of this data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt, but this could be a little conservative and Hilda is very near hurricane strength. The aforementioned ASCAT data was also used to adjust the wind radii inward at the initial and short range forecast times. Steady strengthening seems likely during the next 24 to 36 hours as the environment remains generally favorable, consisting of relatively warm SSTs, low wind shear, and a high amount of moisture. The NHC intensity forecast during that time period is the same as before and lies at the high end of the model guidance, near HCCA. Beyond 36 hours, however, decreasing moisture and progressively cooler SSTs should end the strengthening trend and gradually cause weakening during the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope for that portion of the forecast. Hilda is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A subtropical ridge should keep the storm on a general west-northwest heading during the next several days, but the more skillful models like the GFS and ECMWF show some interaction with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and a low pressure area to the east. These interactions will likely cause some slow downs and an erratic motion at times during the forecast period. There continues to be a fair amount of spread in the models, especially in terms of forward speed, and the new forecast is a little to the north of the previous based on the latest guidance. This track prediction is slightly slower than the consensus aids, and has given more weight to the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 14.1N 117.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.5N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.5N 122.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 16.0N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 16.8N 125.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.8N 126.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 19.3N 129.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 20.4N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-07-31 22:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 312035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 117.9W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 117.9W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 117.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 119.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.0N 123.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.8N 125.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.8N 126.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 19.3N 129.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.4N 133.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-07-31 16:49:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 029 WTPZ43 KNHC 311449 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Hilda is strengthening quickly this morning. Satellite images show an eye feature trying to form, and convection has deepened and become increasingly symmetric around the center. The latest Dvorak estimates supported raising the initial intensity to 55 kt at 12Z, and since Hilda continues to organize, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 60 kt for this advisory. This makes Hilda just below hurricane strength. The current favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and warm SSTs should continue to allow Hilda to intensify during the next day or so. In addition, given that Hilda now has a tight inner core, rapid intensification (RI) is a decent possibility, and the SHIPS RI index now shows a 30 percent chance of that occurring during the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, decreasing moisture and progressively cooler SSTs should end the strengthening trend and gradually cause weakening during the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is above than the previous one in the short term and it lies at the high end of the model guidance. The long term forecast is largely similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Hilda is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A subtropical ridge should keep the storm on a general west-northwest heading during the next several days, but there could be some interaction with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and a low pressure area to the east that could cause slow downs and wobbles in the future track. There is a fair amount of spread among the models, especially at the longer range forecast times, but the latest consensus models are right on top of the previous track. Therefore, the NHC track forecast is largely just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.7N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.0N 118.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.4N 119.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 16.1N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.9N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.3N 132.6W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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