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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-07-19 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192039 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia continues to weaken at a rapid pace. Satellite images show that only a small amount of deep convection in the northeastern quadrant remains, and otherwise the circulation is largely a swirl of low-level clouds. Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a blend of the latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 55 kt. This makes Felicia a tropical storm once again. A recent ASCAT-A pass showed peak winds close to 45 kt, but given the very small size of the system and relatively coarse resolution of the instrument, it seems reasonable that stronger winds are occurring. Very dry air surrounding the small storm combined with cool SSTs and a steady rise in northwesterly wind shear should cause additional weakening, and Felicia will likely become a remnant low in a couple of days, or possibly sooner if the current trends continue. The intensity forecast follows the bulk of the guidance and is a little lower than the previous one. Felicia has been losing some latitude today, and the latest initial motion estimate is 265/11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should steer Felicia west-southwestward to westward during the next several days until the cyclone dissipates, which is now expected to occur by day 4. Based on the current forecast, Felicia should cross into the Central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.1N 133.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.9N 135.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 15.0N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 14.4N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z 13.1N 148.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Guillermo Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-07-19 22:38:28| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021
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Tropical Depression Guillermo Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-07-19 22:37:27| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 19 2021
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 23
2021-07-19 22:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 192034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.4W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.4W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 132.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.9N 135.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.0N 141.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.4N 143.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.1N 148.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 133.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Guillermo Forecast Information (.shp)
2021-07-19 16:39:30| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 14:39:30 GMT
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