je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-07-05 04:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050255 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND LAS TUNAS AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS, GRANMA, HOLGUIN, SANTIAGO DE CUBA, AND GUANTANAMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS . A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 79.2W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 79.2W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 78.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 79.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-07-04 22:43:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042043 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Elsa continues to exhibit some well-defined convective banding features over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55 kt respectively,so the advisory intensity remains at 50 kt. Although the cirrus-level outflow over the area looks fairly impressive, the SHIPS output diagnoses about 20 kt of vertical shear over the cyclone, which may be inhibiting strengthening. Another negative factor could be blockage of the low-level inflow by the land masses surrounding the cyclone. The storm has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/12 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. Elsa should move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area during the next 3 days or so. Thereafter, the system should accelerate northward to northeastward over the eastern United States and the northwest Atlantic. No significant changes have been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains close to the simple and correct model consensus solutions. Some strengthening could occur as the storm approaches the south coast of Cuba and although not explicitly shown in the official forecast, Elsa could strengthen to near 60 kt before landfall in that country. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear is expected to limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday. 3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.7N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 24.2N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1800Z 25.8N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 27.9N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 30.5N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/1800Z 34.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-07-04 22:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 131 WTNT25 KNHC 042042 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * JAMAICA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 77.9W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 77.9W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 77.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 79.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.7N 81.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.2N 82.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.8N 83.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.9N 83.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.5N 82.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 34.9N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 77.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-07-04 16:57:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041457 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 A NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa this morning. Flight-level and SFMR surface observations from the aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 50 kt and the estimated central pressure, about 1009 mb, is rather high for a system of this intensity. Also, tail Doppler radar data from the aircraft show an eastward tilt of the center with height. Nonetheless, the storm still looks fairly impressive on satellite images with a well-defined convective banding feature over the northern through eastern portions of the circulation. Also, the highest cloud tops are quite cold and near -70C. Elsa's forward speed has slowed a little more, and the current motion is around 290/11 kt. There hasn't been much change to the track forecast or reasoning since the previous advisory. Over the next few days, the tropical cyclone should move around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous official forecast, and close to the model consensus. The latest GFS and HWRF solutions are to the west of this forecast. Elsa should remain in a low-shear environment through Monday, and some strengthening is likely before the storm reaches Cuba, assuming the circulation becomes better aligned vertically. The storm should weaken somewhat due to its passage over Cuba. After the cyclone emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, only slight restrengthening is forecast due to moderate southwesterly shear. The official intensity forecast is on the high end of the numerical intensity guidance suite. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica today where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday. 3. Tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts are expected beginning late Monday in the Florida Keys, and are possible along the coast of southwestern Florida beginning Monday night. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect in those areas. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Monday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. However, uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 18.7N 76.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.2N 78.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 23.4N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1200Z 24.7N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 28.6N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-07-04 16:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 041454 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY EASTWARD TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * JAMAICA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO BONITA BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 76.8W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 76.8W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 76.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.2N 78.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.4N 81.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.7N 82.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.6N 82.8W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 76.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [211] [212] [213] [214] [215] [216] [217] [218] [219] [220] [221] [222] [223] [224] [225] [226] [227] [228] [229] [230] next »