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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-07-05 16:59:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051459 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa while it approaches the south coast of Cuba this morning. Based on SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. A center dropsonde from the plane measured 1009 mb with 26 kt at the surface, so the minimum central pressure estimate is 1006 mb, indicating no significant change since yesterday. Tail Doppler wind data from the NOAA plane showed that there is an eastward tilt of the center with height, so the storm continues to have some vertical alignment issues. Satellite imagery continues to depict convective banding features over the eastern portion of the circulation, with the center located near the western edge of the main cloud mass. Elsa continues its northwestward track with an initial motion estimate of 310/12 kt. Over the next 2-3 days, the tropical cyclone should move between a subtropical ridge over the southwest North Atlantic and a mid-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. In the latter part of the forecast period, Elsa is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the westerlies off the eastern United States coast and into the Atlantic, where it should lose its tropical characteristics in the vicinity of Nova Scotia. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the official track track forecast has been nudged slightly westward toward the model consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA, but not as far west as that guidance. The GFS model track lies a little east of the latest NHC track. Some slight weakening is likely while Elsa crosses west-central Cuba today. Restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be limited by moderate westerly shear associated with a broad upper-level trough over the Gulf. The official intensity forecast is mostly higher than the numerical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba today. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys and along the Florida west coast tonight through Tuesday night, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Big Bend. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.5N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 23.2N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 25.0N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 27.0N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 29.3N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 31.5N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1200Z 38.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/1200Z 44.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-07-05 16:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 051455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. THE STORM SURGE WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 81.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 81.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 80.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N 83.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 83.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.3N 83.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N 82.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 38.5N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 44.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 81.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-07-05 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050832 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Elsa appears to be holding steady in strength while moving just south of central Cuba. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images show a persistent area of deep convection over the center and some banding features, especially on the south side of the circulation. An ASCAT pass from around 0130Z indicated that Elsa was a compact system with tropical-storm-force winds mostly confined to a region within about 60 n mi east of the center. Peak winds in the pass were around 50 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and given the small size of the cyclone and somewhat course resolution of the ASCAT data, it seems very reasonable that Elsa has an initial intensity of around 55 kt. This intensity estimate is also in line with the latest Dvorak classifications. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa again shortly, and the data the plane collects will be valuable in assessing the storm's intensity and wind field. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 12 kt on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the central Atlantic. A gradual turn to the north is expected over the next day or two as Elsa moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern should take the core of Elsa across central or western Cuba later this morning, near the Lower Florida Keys tonight or early Tuesday, and then along or very near the west coast of Florida later on Tuesday through early Wednesday. Most of the models show Elsa moving inland over west-central or northern Florida, but given the expected parallel motion to the coast, much of the west coast of the state will likely see impacts from Elsa on Tuesday and into Wednesday. After Elsa clears Florida, it is expected to move faster north-northeastward across coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday before moving over the western Atlantic. The new track forecast is just a little to the left of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus models. Given the overall favorable environmental conditions, Elsa could strengthen a little before it reaches the coast of Cuba later this morning. Some weakening is expected due to the land interaction with Cuba, but most of the model guidance suggests that Elsa could restrengthen slightly before it moves inland over Florida. Significant strengthening is not anticipated though due to moderate wind shear. However, it should be noted that given the expected track, much of the west coast of Florida will be on the east side of Elsa, which is where the strongest winds, highest surge, and heaviest rains are expected to be. Gradual weakening is forecast while Elsa moves across portions of the southeast U.S., but some restrengthening is possible again when the storm moves over the western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one while Elsa is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico, and it lies near the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba today. Hurricane conditions are also possible along the south coast this morning. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida tonight and Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for much of the west coast of Florida. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 21.0N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 22.2N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 06/1800Z 25.9N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 30.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/0600Z 32.5N 80.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0600Z 36.8N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/0600Z 42.0N 64.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-07-05 10:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050831 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD...FLORIDA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ANCLOTE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER...FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N 81.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.9N 83.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.1N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.5N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 36.8N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 42.0N 64.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 79.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-07-05 04:58:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050258 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Similar to this time last night, Elsa has undergone another convective bursting pattern, except that tonight this has translated into at least some slight strengthening. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of about 55 kt. Although there have been SFMR winds of 60 kt or more reported northeast and north of the center, those values appear to be contaminated by shoaling and/or breaking waves owing to the shallow water flowing in and around the offshore Cayo Anclitas and Cayo Pingues archipelagos. The estimated center pressure of 1004 mb based on dropsonde data also does a higher intensity of 60 kt. Therefore, based on the most reliable data, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous few track forecasts and synoptic reasonings. Elsa is expected to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 3 days, followed by acceleration toward the northeast on days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves near the southeast U.S. coast and then over the northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is basically just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed corrected consensus model HCCA and the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX. Cuban radar data from Pilan and Camaguey have occasionally revealed an eye-like feature in the low -and mid-levels of the cyclone where cloud top temperatures have been colder than -80C and also where significant lightning activity has been occurring. Given that the circulation centers have become better aligned and the upper-level outflow pattern is well-established and steadily improving, some additional strengthening during the next 12 h is forecast, which calls for Elsa to be near hurricane strength before landfall occurs along the south-central coast of Cuba tomorrow. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday, some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa clears Cuba, but southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder the intensification process. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance, and follows a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus model, and the LGEM and and Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina may result in isolated flash flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday. 3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Stewart
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