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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-07-04 10:36:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040836 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 The last pass from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters provided interesting and somewhat confusing data on Elsa. The flight-level winds and SFMR data indicate that Elsa's intensity remains around 55 kt, but the wind center is located well to the east of the previous fixes. However, the minimum pressure observed with this new wind center is a few millibars higher than the fixes that were made further west last night. The new center is now beneath the strongest convection, so it seems likely that the mid-level circulation has built downward to the surface and led to this center reformation. Elsa does appear a little better organized in geostationary satellite and microwave images, and it now has a central dense overcast that is fairly symmetric around the center. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa shortly, and the data the aircraft collects will be very helpful in understanding these structural changes and the new intensity information. Elsa appears to have slowed down, and smoothing through the latest center reformation yields an initial motion of 285/12 kt. Despite the changes to the initial motion and position, the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed much. Elsa is expected to move west-northwestward and track near or over Jamaica and eastern Cuba later this morning and then across or just south of the central and western portions of Cuba later today through early Monday. By early Monday, however, Elsa should be making a turn to the north as it moves between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take the storm near the Florida Keys by late Monday and near or over the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. After that time, the storm is forecast to turn northeastward and increase its forward speed as it tracks across the southeast U.S. and over the western Atlantic on the northwest side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, due in part to the initial motion and position. The short term intensity forecast is very dependent on Elsa's exact track. If the core of the storm moves directly over Jamaica or Cuba, the small vortex would likely be very disrupted due to the mountainous islands. However, if the storm manages to pass between those islands today, some strengthening seems possible given the improved appearance in satellite images. Weakening is forecast to occur on Monday due to a combination of land interaction with Cuba and an increase in vertical wind shear. After the storm moves over the Florida Straits and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, only a small amount of restrengthening is expected due to continued moderate wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with the majority of the typically skillful intensity aids. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Haiti and Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in central and western Cuba tonight and Monday. 3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning late Monday in the Florida Keys, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the Florida Peninsula Monday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. However, uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.1N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.5N 77.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR CUBA 24H 05/0600Z 21.5N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR CUBA 36H 05/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0600Z 24.6N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/1800Z 25.9N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 27.8N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR FLORIDA COAST 96H 08/0600Z 33.2N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/0600Z 38.4N 72.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-07-04 10:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS * JAMAICA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 75.5W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 105SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 75.5W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 77.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 79.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.6N 82.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.9N 82.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.8N 82.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 33.2N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 38.4N 72.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 75.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-07-04 05:00:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040259 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Elsa is undergoing a convective bursting pattern the past few hours, with some cold overshooting tops of -90 deg C east and northeast of the center. However, data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that this convective increase has not translated into an intensity increase. To the contrary, 5000-ft flight-level and SFMR surface winds have decreased while the central pressure has increased to 1004 mb. Based on the latest recon data, the intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. The aircraft has now climbed to 10,000 ft for safety reasons and will be penetrating the area of intense convection to check for stronger winds there. The initial motion estimate is now 295/15 kt. Elsa is forecast to gradually move around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the next 96 hours, accompanied by an additional decrease in forward speed. The latest model guidance has continued to converge along the previous advisory track, with the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE nearly on top of each other. The TCVA simple consensus model is also similar to the HCCA and FSSE models. However, out of respect for the slightly more westward GFS and GFS-ensemble models, which have performed admirably thus far with Elsa, the new official forecast lies a tad west of the aforementioned consensus models and lies nearly on top of the previous advisory track. After interacting with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Haiti, which could have caused some disruption in the low-level field despite the center remaining offshore, little change in intensity is expected tonight. However, some slight restrengthening could occur by Sunday afternoon as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba where the sea-surface temperatures are quite warm at more than 30 deg C and the water is deep. Weakening is expected after the cyclone moves across west-central Cuba, followed again by some slight restrengthening after Elsa emerges over the warm Gulf Stream in the Straits of Florida. Westerly vertical wind shear increasing to near 20 kt by 96 hours should prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. Elsa should become a very asymmetrical tropical cyclone late on day 3 and on day 4 with most of the heavy rain and strongest winds displaced along and to the east of the forecast track. The initial intensity is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the simple and corrected consensus models. Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Haiti and Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. 3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.9N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.2N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 22.5N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 24.1N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 28.0N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 32.7N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/0000Z 37.7N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-07-04 04:47:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040246 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS * JAMAICA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 75.3W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 75.3W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 74.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 77.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 79.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.1N 82.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 32.7N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 37.7N 74.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 75.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/PAPIN
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-07-03 22:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 810 WTNT45 KNHC 032053 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Satellite imagery shows that Elsa looks ragged and disorganized at this time, with bursts of convection occuring near the low-level center and poorly-defined convective banding. Some of this is likely due to the the proximity of the system to Hispaniola. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported reliable 55-60 kt surface wind estimates from the SFMR, along with the latest central pressure report of 1000 mb. The initial intensity remains 60 kt based mainly on the SFMR data. The initial motion is now 295/24. There is little change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Elsa is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large baroclinic trough over the eastern United States. The global models forecast this trough to move eastward into the Atlantic, but the southern portion is likely to split off and become an upper-level low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic situated to the east of the this low. In response, Elsa should slow its forward motion and turn northwestward during the next 48 h, followed by a general northward motion from 60-96 h and recurvature into the westerlies after that time. The forecast track takes the center near or over southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After that, the system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern United States on its way into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is changed little from the previous advisory, and it lies near the center of the now reasonably-agreeing track guidance envelope. In addition to land interaction, Elsa continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is at least partly due to the fast low-level flow that the storm is embedded in. Some shear is expected to continue through the next 72 h. However, once the system passes the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, there may be less land interaction than previously forecast. The intensity guidance is in good agreement on weakening during the next 48 h, and the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as a not very vertically aligned system with some separation between the low- and mid-level centers over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, despite the shear, upper-level divergence associated with the aforementioned upper-level low could allow for some re-intensification as forecast by the HWRF and other models. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for some weakening in the first 48 h and then shows re- intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first 72 h, the forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Hurricane warnings remain in effect for portions of Haiti at this time, as there is still the possibility that a short-lived re-intensification might occur due to a convective burst. Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti, where near-hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected through this evening. 2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.2N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.6N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 23.1N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 24.9N 82.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 26.9N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 32.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/1800Z 36.5N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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