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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-09-21 04:46:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 210246 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.4N 64.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N 67.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 67.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 67.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.1N 67.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 62.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-09-21 04:45:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210245 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Although Rose's convective pattern does not appear to be as organized as it was earlier today, a couple of ASCAT overpasses this evening indicated that the tropical cyclone has strengthened since this morning. Both ASCAT-A and -B instruments detected 40-45 kt winds around the southeastern portion of the circulation, and the initial intensity was raised to 45 kt around 0000 UTC with the issuance of a Tropical Cyclone Update. That intensity is maintained for this advisory, and it is also in agreement with subjective Dvorak data T-numbers of 3.0 from TAFB and SAB. The ASCAT data also indicated that the center of Rose is located to the west of the previous estimates, near the northwestern edge of the convective mass noted in satellite imagery. As a result of the center re-location, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/13 kt. Although the short-term portion of the track forecast has been adjusted westward due to the more westward initial position, there has been no overall change in forecast track reasoning for this advisory. Rose should continue northwestward around the western portion of a strong subtropical ridge during the next couple of days. Beyond that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic should cause Rose to recurve northward, then northeastward, and finally east-northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The dynamical models are in general agreement on this scenario but there are some differences in how sharp Rose will turn, and how fast it will move northeastward late in the period. The new NHC track forecast shows a somewhat sharper turn than the previous advisory to be closer to the latest consensus aids. Rose has likely reached its peak intensity as increasing shear and the entrainment of drier mid-level air are likely to cause weakening by this time tomorrow. Additional weakening is expected after that time as a further increase in shear is anticipated when Rose nears the aforementioned trough in 2 to 3 days. The updated NHC wind speed forecast is slightly stronger at 12 and 24 hours due to the higher initial intensity, but is unchanged after that time. Given the expected hostile environmental conditions, it would not be surprising to see Rose wither more quickly and degenerate into a remnant low sooner than indicated below. That is indicated by at least some of the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.9N 35.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 22.2N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 23.5N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 24.8N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 26.1N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 27.3N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 29.0N 38.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 30.5N 33.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-09-20 22:34:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202033 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Satellite images show that Rose hasn't changed much during the past several hours, with the center on the northern side of the cloud shield. The last microwave pass from a few hours ago showed that the mid- and low-level centers of the cyclone remained 60-90 n mi apart, which is probably a sign that it isn't strengthening. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt based on continuity, and hopefully scatterometer data will be available for the next advisory due to the recent high bias of the conventional satellite estimates. The window for strengthening of the tropical cyclone is closing soon due to increasing shear and likely intrusions of dry mid-level air. These factors should cause the storm to start a weakening trend sometime tomorrow. The long-term future of Rose doesn't look golden either due to further increasing shear from an incoming upper- level trough. The new forecast is just a shade lower than the previous one, near the model consensus, with Rose likely sinking to a depression in a few days and degenerating to a remnant low by day 5. The initial motion remains northwestward at about 14 kt. Rose is is likely to continue moving in that general direction during the next couple of days around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, guidance is coming into good agreement on a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic causing the cyclone to recurve to the north, northeast and even east-northeastward by the weekend. While the models don't agree on how sharp of a turn will occur, they are at least consistent that this trough will take the storm into a hostile environment and decay. The new forecast is again adjusted well to northeast at long range, and still might not be far enough to the east. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 18.4N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.0N 35.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 21.8N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 23.3N 37.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 24.5N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 26.0N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 27.3N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 29.2N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 31.5N 34.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-09-20 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 202032 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Peter's evolution on satellite today is nearly a repeat of yesterday, with the deep convection having been stripped well east of the center in the morning and then redeveloping over and east of the center by the afternoon. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Peter this morning and early afternoon provided data during a few different passes through the northeast quadrant that supported peak surface winds of 40-45 kt. Since the convection has returned it is reasonable to assume that no weakening has occurred since the aircraft departed the cyclone, and the initial advisory intensity remains 45 kt. Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain near 30 kt for the next few days as Peter interacts with an upper trough to its west, so some weakening is anticipated during that time. By late in the forecast period, the shear should lessen somewhat as the cyclone lifts north of the upper trough. Therefore, slow strengthening is indicated by late this week. There remains a possibility that Peter does not survive the shear over the next few days. However, the storm thus far has shown some resiliency to the hostile environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains near the various intensity consensus solutions. Peter continues to move west-northwest but at a slightly slower pace of around 12 kt. The forecast track reasoning for the cyclone remains the same. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next two days as the system remains to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, Peter should slow down and turn northwest then north as it reaches a developing weakness in the ridge carved out by a mid-latitude trough moving across the northeastern United States. There were no significant changes to the track or the track guidance from the previous advisory, and the latest NHC track is closest to the TVCN and GFEX consensus tracks. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible today and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 20.0N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.6N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 22.2N 66.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 23.1N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 24.0N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 25.1N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 27.8N 66.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 30.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 9

2021-09-20 22:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 770 WTNT21 KNHC 202032 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 61.8W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 61.8W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 61.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.6N 63.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.2N 66.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.1N 68.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 68.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.1N 68.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.8N 66.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 30.5N 65.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 61.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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