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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-09-21 16:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211449 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 36.9W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 36.9W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 36.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.8N 37.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.9N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.3N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.4N 39.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 31.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 36.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-09-21 10:37:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210837 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 Rose has lost organization over the past several hours. Satellite images show a fully exposed low-level center with only a small area of deep convection lingering in the southeastern quadrant. The Dvorak classifications have decreased, and the initial intensity is nudged downward to 40 kt. Rose is moving northwestward at 17 kt. This general heading but with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as the storm is steered by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to mid-level ridge. By late this week and over the weekend, a sharp turn to the north and then the northeast is expected as Rose becomes embedded in the flow on the south side of a broad deep-layer trough. Although there is some spread in the guidance, the models all show the same general theme. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The environment is expected to become increasingly unfavorable for Rose during the next several days with westerly shear increasing and dry air expected to wrap into the circulation. These conditions should promote a weakening trend, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by the weekend when it should be over cooler waters and in an environment of more than 30 kt of shear. Some of the models suggest that Rose could become a remnant low or open into a trough sooner than that, and if the current trend continues that is a distinct possibility. The new forecast is largely an update of the previous one, but does show the storm becoming a remnant low a day earlier. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 21.0N 36.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 22.4N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 23.8N 38.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 25.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 26.4N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 27.7N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 29.0N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 30.7N 36.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z 32.8N 31.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-09-21 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 36.4W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 36.4W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 36.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.4N 37.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.8N 38.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.4N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.7N 41.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.0N 40.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 30.7N 36.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 32.8N 31.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 36.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-09-21 10:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 210835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 63.8W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 63.8W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.3N 65.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.2N 66.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.2N 67.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 68.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.2N 67.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.2N 65.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 29.2N 64.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 63.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-09-21 04:50:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210250 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Peter has proven to be a resilient tropical cyclone, despite strong upper-level wind shear that continues to displace its deep convection well east of its now exposed low-level center. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Peter tonight, as well as recent scatterometer data, indicate that the cyclone has maintained its tropical storm intensity. An ASCAT-A pass shows several 40-kt wind vectors, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 150 n mi from the center in the northeastern quadrant. The aircraft has found peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR winds of around 35 kt, although it did not sample the area where ASCAT depicted the strongest winds. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 45 kt for this advisory based on the scatterometer data. An upper-level trough to the northwest of Peter should maintain 20 to 30 kt of vertical wind shear over the cyclone for the next 2-3 days. Thus, intensification seems unlikely during this period, despite 29 deg C SSTs along Peter's forecast track. If the tropical cyclone can endure these hostile upper-level winds, it could survive through the entire forecast period, although the drier mid-level environment at higher latitudes will also work against Peter later this week. However, an alternative scenario that has been favored by the GFS is that Peter weakens sooner due to a lack of sustained convection and opens up into a trough late this week. The long-range forecast is further complicated by the potential development of another non-tropical low to the north of Peter later this week, which could interact with or absorb Peter. The official NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and only shows gradual weakening over the next several days, which is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVDR consensus aids. Data from the aircraft indicate that the center has moved westward and slowed down a bit over the past several hours, and Peter's initial motion is estimated to be 285/10 kt. Peter is expected to continue moving generally west-northwestward through Tuesday, as it is steered around the southern extent of a low- to mid-level ridge over the central and western Atlantic. By Wednesday, a mid-level cutoff low is forecast to develop to the north of Peter over the western Atlantic, which will induce a weakness in the steering ridge. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn northward and then north-northeastward through the latter part of the week and into the weekend. There are some larger along-track differences noted in the guidance at days 4-5, with the ECMWF moving or re-forming the center much farther north than the rest of the track guidance. The official NHC track forecast is shifted slightly to the right at 48 h and beyond, based on the latest TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. At longer ranges, the forecast is of much lower confidence and trends a bit slower than the consensus aids, which are heavily influenced by the outlying ECMWF solution. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 19.8N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.4N 64.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 21.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 22.3N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 23.2N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 24.0N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 25.1N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 27.5N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 30.5N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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