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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-10-02 04:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020233 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 122.1W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 122.1W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 123.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.3N 125.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.4N 128.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 130.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.8N 131.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 134.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 136.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 122.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-10-01 22:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 012043 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 An eye has formed in visible and infrared satellite imagery since the issuance of the previous advisory, and the surrounding convection continues to have cold cloud tops (as cold as -83C). The width of the coldest tops were a little thin on the southwest side at 1800 UTC, and because of this, subjective and objective intensity estimates were still 90 kt. Since that time, the eye has become more distinct and the convection is becoming more symmetric around the eye, and the initial intensity is therefore set at 95 kt. Marie's initial position has been adjusted to the south just a bit now that the center is more apparent with the eye formation. This yields a current westward motion of 280/14 kt. The atmospheric features responsible for steering Marie during the forecast period will be a mid-tropospheric ridge centered over the southwestern United States and a mid- to upper-level low located to the west over the Pacific. The interplay between these features is likely to cause some wiggles in Marie's future track, but for the most part the hurricane will be moving west-northwestward or northwestward through day 5. The spread in the guidance increases toward the end of the forecast period, with the GFS turning more northward and the ECMWF maintaining a west-northwestward motion. The other deterministic models are in between these two solutions, clustered very close to the various multi-model consensus aids, and that is where the NHC forecast also lies for this advisory. The environment appears conducive for this phase of rapid intensification to continue, at least for the next 24 hours. Deep-layer shear is just about to decrease to 10 kt or less, and Marie will remain over waters of high ocean heat content for the next 24-36 hours. The intensity guidance decreased a bit on this cycle, which seems odd given the ongoing intensification trend and the favorable environmental conditions. The SHIPS model does still show that the chance for rapid intensification to continue is 3 to 5 times higher than the climatological mean, and therefore the NHC intensity forecast maintains continuity from the previous advisory, showing a peak intensity of 120 kt. This forecast is above the highest intensity models by about 10-15 kt. Weakening is still anticipated, particularly after 48 hours, due to Marie moving over cooler waters and being affected by increasing southwesterly shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 15.1N 120.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.8N 122.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.8N 126.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 19.7N 129.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 20.3N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.4N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-10-01 22:42:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 012041 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 120.9W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 120.9W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 120.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 122.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.8N 126.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 129.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 130.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.4N 133.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 136.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Sherwin-Williams Releases 2nd Annual Industrial Color Trend Forecast
2020-10-01 16:46:11| Coatings World Breaking News
Color experts curate three forward-looking palettes for industrial markets.
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-10-01 16:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011437 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Marie has continued to become better organized this morning. An AMSR image from just after 09Z showed a closed mid-level eyewall, and conventional satellite imagery shows an increasingly symmetric cloud pattern with very cold cloud tops, colder than -80C, around the center. The current intensity estimate is set at 90 kt in agreement with Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB. Marie is moving over SSTs warmer than 28 deg C and in a moist, low-shear atmospheric environment. The SHIPS guidance still shows a significant probability of rapid intensification through tonight, so Marie is likely to become a major hurricane quite soon. The official forecast is a little above the latest corrected model consensus. In a couple of days, the hurricane should be crossing the SST gradient and encountering cooler waters, so a weakening trend is anticipated to be underway within 48 hours. The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt. For the next couple of days, Marie should continue to move along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge associated with a high pressure system centered over California. A slight turn to the right with some deceleration is expected during the forecast period due to a weakness in the ridge near 130W longitude. By the end of the period, Marie is likely to turn toward the northwest while it moves through this weakness. The official track forecast lies very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCE, prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 15.2N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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