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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-10-02 22:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 022039 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.0W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.0W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.6N 126.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 130.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-10-02 22:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Convective banding features have become a little better defined over the southern portion of the circulation, but otherwise the system has not changed much in organization since earlier today. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and scatterometer observations from a few hours ago. The SHIPS model output now shows some south-southwesterly shear affecting the system during the next few days. Otherwise, the environment should favor at least gradual strengthening, and the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm prior to moving near the Yucatan Peninsula. The official intensity forecast is within the range of most of the model guidance. The initial motion estimate is the same as in the morning advisory, 315/8 kt. The depression should move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area for the next couple of days, causing the cyclone to move on a northwestward to north-northwestward heading. Later in the forecast period, the global models build a weak ridge across the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico. This should induce the cyclone to turn westward or even a little south of west in 3-5 days. The latest NHC forecast lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA, and is quite similar to the previous official forecast. At this time, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system is rain and flooding, particularly near and over mountainous terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.8N 85.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.5N 86.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 20.5N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 21.6N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 22.3N 87.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 22.5N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 22.0N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-10-02 22:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 022033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO * WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 85.3W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 85.3W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 86.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 87.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.6N 87.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.3N 87.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 88.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 91.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-10-02 16:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021456 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Visible satellite images show that cloudiness and showers associated with the low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea have become significantly better organized since yesterday, with convective banding features becoming prominent. Moreover, low cloud motions suggest that a closed circulation has become better defined. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Twenty-Five at this time. The initial intensity estimate is 30 kt based on Dvorak T-numbers, but an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today to provide a better intensity estimate. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, near 30 deg C, and vertical shear should remain low for at least the next couple of days, so the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm by the time it nears the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow. The main impediment to strengthening over the next few days should be the interaction with land. Given the uncertainties about how far offshore the center will be over the next several days, the official intensity forecast is conservative. Since there is still a lot of scatter in the center fixes, the initial motion estimate, 315/8 kt, is rather uncertain. For the next couple of days, the system is expected to move northwestward to north-northwestward on the southwestern edge of a mid-level high pressure area. This would take the center near or over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. After about 48 hours, the steering currents are not well-defined and there is considerable spread in the track models. At this time, it appears the cyclone should move slowly westward over the latter part of the forecast period in response to weak ridging over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast is near or a little north of the corrected and simple model consensus predictions. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches have been issued for a portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.1N 84.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.9N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 20.6N 87.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1200Z 21.4N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 22.0N 87.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 22.0N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 21.5N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 21.5N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-10-02 16:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA AND WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA * WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.7W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.7W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 84.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.9N 85.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.6N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.4N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 87.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 88.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 90.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 84.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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