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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-10-04 22:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042058 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 The last aircraft reconnaissance fix, recorded a couple of hours ago, indicated that Gamma's center had wobbled a little to the right of the previous 6-hour motion and is located near the southeastern edge of the convective canopy. Flight-level winds adjusted to the surface, SFMR wind data, and a blend of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals stiff 20-25 kt southerly shear impinging on the south portion of the cyclone. Subsequently, the large-scale models and the ECMWF/GFS statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show the shear magnitude increasing during the next 24 hours. This inhibiting upper wind pattern should induce weakening soon. Although the shear is predicted to decrease somewhat around mid-period, Gamma should exhibit little change in strength through the remaining period which is in best agreement with all of the skilled intensity guidance. As mentioned in previous advisories, it cannot be stressed enough the relatively high level of uncertainty in this intensity forecast, and that it's primarily dependent on whether or not the cyclone moves back over the Yucatan Peninsula. Gamma should continue to move little, or meander over the southern Gulf of Mexico, near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of tomorrow. By Monday night, the global models are in good agreement with the western extent of a subtropical ridge reestablishing temporarily over the central Gulf of Mexico. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause the cyclone to turn and move west-southwestward through the 72 hour forecast period. After a brief reduction in forward speed late Wednesday, while Potential-Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six moves into the central Gulf of Mexico, a turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday as the ridge, once again, builds back over the central Gulf in response to PTC Twenty-Six approaching the northern Gulf coast. The official track forecast is adjusted to the left of the previous one through the 60 hour period to agree more with the HCCA consensus, and shifted to the right through day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 22.4N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 22.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.1N 88.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 21.7N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 21.3N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 20.8N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 20.1N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 21.0N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 22.2N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-10-04 22:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 042056 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 87.8W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......140NE 60SE 40SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 88.1W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.3N 88.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 88.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.7N 89.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.3N 90.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.8N 91.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.1N 91.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.0N 92.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.2N 92.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 88.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-10-04 22:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 042055 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE CUBA PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LA HABANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 76.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 76.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 76.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 77.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.1N 85.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 87.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 90.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.6N 90.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 76.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 23

2020-10-04 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 The center of Marie is now totally exposed, well to the south and southwest of a few remaining areas of deep convection. While Marie's convective pattern resembles a low-end tropical storm, it takes time for systems of Marie's magnitude to spin down, and the initial intensity of 65 kt is based on a blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak numbers from TAFB. A pair of ASCAT passes near 18Z explicitly showed winds near 55 kt, but it likely under sampled the peak winds of the hurricane's tight circulation. The ASCAT also showed that Marie's tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii have not yet contracted very much. The position of Marie was adjusted a little to the west, and the track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but is otherwise very similar to the previous advisory for the first 72 h. After that time, the most recent guidance suggests that Marie, then expected to be a remnant low, could turn due west, or even south of due west. This is a pretty big departure from previous solutions, so the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but not nearly as much as the model consensus. It should be noted that regardless of position, Marie is forecast to be a weak remnant low at 96 and 120 h. High shear, cool SSTs, and stable surrounding air should cause Marie to continue to quickly weaken for the next few days. Simulated satellite imagery suggests that the system could produce intermittent convection for up to 60 more hours. It isn't clear how well organized it will be, and given recent trends it is possible Marie will become a remnant low much sooner than currently forecast. The system will likely dissipate sometime near or just after 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 20.3N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 23

2020-10-04 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 042031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 129.5W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 129.5W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 129.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 129.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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