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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-10-05 04:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050238 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PROGRESO TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 87.2W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 60SE 60SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 87.2W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 87.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.7N 87.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 40SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 88.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.8N 89.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.3N 90.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.3N 90.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.2N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 87.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-10-05 04:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050235 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.1W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.1W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 129.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 132.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.4N 134.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.3N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.6N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.7N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-10-05 04:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 050234 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Satellite data indicate that the disturbance just south of Jamaica has become better organized this evening. Microwave and shortwave infrared images indicate that the center is now well defined, and deep convection has been persisting near and to the south of the center. Based on this data, the system now meets the criteria to be considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is currently moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the southern side of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, taking the system across the Cayman Islands and toward western Cuba. Around the time the depression is expected to be near western Cuba, the models show it accelerating northwestward as it moves in the faster flow between the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma. This motion should bring the tropical cyclone into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Later on, a notable slow down and a turn to the north is forecast to occur late in the week when the depression will likely be approaching the northern Gulf coast. This change in the forecast motion is a result of the ridge weakening and a trough approaching the cyclone from the west. The models are in relatively good agreement, which is surprising since they often diverge for weak systems, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. There is currently some northeasterly shear affecting the depression, but the models all show the shear lessening by tomorrow and remaining fairly light for the next few days. These improving upper-level wind conditions combined with a moist air mass and warm waters should allow for at least steady strengthening during the next few days. By late in the week, when the storm is forecast to approach the U.S. Gulf coast, there could be an increase in southerly or southwesterly shear, which could limit additional strengthening by that time. The NHC intensity forecast lies fairly close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and shows the depression becoming a hurricane near western Cuba with additional strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico. Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods, respectively. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 17.4N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 20.0N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 22.2N 84.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 24.1N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 25.4N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 27.2N 90.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 89.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-10-05 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 050233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 77.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 77.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 77.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.4N 78.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.3N 79.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.0N 81.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 84.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 87.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.4N 88.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N 90.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 77.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-10-04 23:02:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 042102 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Visible satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer data indicated that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea has gradually become better defined. The associated deep convection does not yet have enough organization to classify the system as a tropical depression, but there has been some increase in convection just south of the estimated center. The earlier ASCAT data revealed peak winds of around 30 kt over the northeastern portion of the circulation, and that is the basis for the initial intensity. The disturbance is located over warm waters and in a moist environment, but there is some modest northeasterly shear over the system. The global models indicate that the shear will decrease overnight, and the oceanic and atmospheric environment is expected to quite favorable for both the development of a tropical cyclone and subsequent strengthening of the system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. The intensity guidance is quite aggressive, but also assumes that the system already has a tropical cyclone structure. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is a little below the intensity consensus during the first 24-48 hours, but does show the system at or near hurricane strength by the time is near western Cuba on Tuesday. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and additional strengthening is predicted during that time. Late in the period, conditions are forecast to become less conducive as the vertical wind shear increases and the system nears the cooler shelf waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is moving west-northwestward or 290/9 kt. A mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to build westward over the next few days, which should continue to steer the system west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The forward speed of the system is likely to increase in 48 to 72 hours while it moves between the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma to its southwest. After 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn northward around the western portion of the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the south-central United States. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement during the first 48 to 72 hours, but there is increasing spread thereafter. Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 05/0600Z 17.1N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 05/1800Z 18.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 19.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.1N 85.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 87.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 26.5N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 28.6N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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