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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 22

2020-10-04 16:45:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041445 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Conventional satellite imagery reveals an increasingly apparent asymmetric/vertical tilt due to persistent west-southwesterly shear. The surface center is beginning to become exposed and is now near the western edge of the deep convective mass. The initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is based on a compromise of the available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Weakening should continue rather quickly through the forecast period while the shear magnitude increases with time and the cyclone traverses cooler oceanic surface temperatures. Marie should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in 3 days, or less, and this is in agreement with the majority of the global/regional and statistical guidance. The intensity forecast is near the IVCN intensity consensus and above the ECMWF and GFS Decay SHIPS which actually show dissipation in less than 4 days. Maria's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/6 kt, within the mid-tropospheric steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone. Marie should continue moving in either a west-northwestward or northwestward motion through the remainder of forecast period with some reduction in forward speed, day 3 and beyond. The NHC forecast track has been adjusted a little bit south of the previous advisory after the 24 hour period in order to be closer to the various multi-model consensus aids and to conform more with a motion typical of a shallower, vertically limited system moving through the trade wind flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 20.3N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.7N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 22.7N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 24.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 24.8N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z 25.3N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Tags: number discussion marie forecast

Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-10-04 16:44:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 041444 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 128.6W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 128.6W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 129.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.7N 133.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 135.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 24.8N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.3N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 128.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tags: number marie advisory forecast

Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-10-04 16:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041443 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found the center of Gamma over the far southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Early morning visible satellite imagery has revealed decent banding structure over the northern and western portions of the circulation. The aircraft has measured a peak 850 mb flight-level wind of 66 kt and SFMR winds of 47 kt. A blend of these data support an initial intensity of 50 kt, which is also in line with the latest Dvorak classifications of T3.0 and T3.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Gamma appears to be slowing down as anticipated, with an initial motion estimate of 360/3 kt. Gamma is expected to meander over the southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula during the next 12-24 hours. By late Monday, the western portion of a subtropical ridge is expected to build westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This should cause Gamma to turn westward to west-southwestward through the remainder of the forecast period. The dynamical model guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, but there are some differences in how close Gamma tracks to the northwestern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. The NHC track splits these differences and is a blend TCVA multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The new track forecast is very close to the previous official forecast. Although Gamma has re-strengthened this morning, increasing southerly wind shear is expected over the cyclone by tonight. This unfavorable upper-level environment is likely to cause some gradual weakening by late tonight and Monday. Since the vertical shear expected to remain moderate to strong through the latter portion of the forecast period, little overall change in strength is shown after 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma is offshore, tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 22.2N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 22.6N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 22.6N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 22.3N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 22.0N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 21.5N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 21.0N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 20.4N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 20.4N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-10-04 16:43:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 041443 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 88.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 88.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 88.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.6N 88.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.6N 88.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 89.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 90.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.5N 91.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 91.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 92.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 93.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-10-04 10:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040852 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CANCUN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 88.2W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 88.2W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 88.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.6N 88.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.7N 88.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.5N 90.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.0N 91.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 20.4N 92.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.4N 93.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

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