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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-10-03 10:37:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 030837 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 126.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 126.4W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 129.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 131.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 133.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 135.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 126.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-10-03 04:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030238 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Although Marie still has an impressive and very symetric appearance, cloud tops associated with the huricane have gradually warmed since this afternoon and its eye became less well-defined for a brief period earlier this evening. The cause of this recent trend is not immediately clear since Marie is still located within a favorable low-shear, high SST environment, and two microwave passses near 00Z (SSMIS and SSMI) did not show any sign of an eyewall replacement cycle. Whatever the reason, it has caused intensity estimates to decrease a little since the last advisory, but not enough to justify lowering the intensity at this time. The intial intensity therefore remains 115 kt for this advisory. With a range of estimates from 90 kt to 127 kt, there is a lot of uncertainty in this assessment. Although Marie is located in a favorable environment for now, that won't last much longer. The hurricane is moving toward colder waters and it should begin to experience a large increase in wind shear within the next day or so. The guidance unsurprisingly forecasts that weakening will occur, possibly at a very rapid rate. The NHC forecast is on the high side of the intensity guidance, but still shows Marie becoming a tropical storm within 60 h and a depression by the end of the 5 day period. No changes of note were made to the offficial intensity forecast. Marie has turned northwestward, and should continue on that general heading for most of the weekend as it moves along the southwest periphary of a mid-level ridge. A slight expansion of the ridge could steer Marie more west-northwestward for a day or two after that. Around day 5, a large deep-layer trough should cause the cyclone to turn nearly northward. While there is considerable spread in the track guidance, limiting confidence in the specifics of the track forecast, every global model forecasts that general evolution. The NHC track forecast is very close to the model consensus and the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.5N 125.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.3N 126.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.2N 127.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 24.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-10-03 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 030236 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 125.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 126.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.2N 127.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 134.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.0N 136.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 125.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-10-03 04:31:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030231 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO * WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 86.1W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 86.1W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 85.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.6N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 88.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N 88.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 21.0N 91.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 92.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 86.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-10-02 22:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022041 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Marie remains a powerful hurricane this afternoon. A 1530 UTC SSMIS 91 GHz microwave image showed a well-defined, closed eyewall with a 20 nm eye, which is still evident in recent GOES-17 visible and infrared satellite imagery. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt based on T6.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, which are consistent with recent ADT and earlier SATCON estimates. The 34-kt radii are expanded slightly with this package based on recent ASCAT data. Marie is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 10 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. A break in the ridge should allow Marie to turn northwestward within the next 24 hours and maintain that motion over the next several days. By day 5, an approaching upper-level trough moving across the eastern Pacific Ocean should turn Marie more toward the north-northwest. There is still more noticeable spread in the guidance at days 4 and 5, likely related to differences in the amplitude of the upper-level trough. It is worth noting that the GFS depicts a deeper upper trough, and thus a more drastic northerly turn, than the rest of the global models. Overall, the NHC forecast was again slowed down a bit and shifted slightly to the right to align better with the latest TVCE multi-model consensus and HCCA aids. Marie is expected to remain in a low-shear environment with sea surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius for the next 18-24 hours. Although slight additional strengthening cannot be ruled out, the storm is running out of time before environmental conditions become more hostile. After 24 hours, increasing deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters should support a steady weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period. Marie is expected to fall below hurricane strength by 60 hours and become a tropical depression by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster weakening trend and remains very close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 16.9N 125.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 17.6N 126.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 20.6N 130.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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