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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-10-03 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031438 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Marie shows little signs of weakening this morning as its satellite presentation remains impressive. A closed ring of eyewall convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -65 degrees C surrounds a well-defined 20 nm eye. The initial intensity is maintained at 115 kt based on a T6.0 Dvorak classification from SAB, which is supported by the latest ADT estimates. Marie is approaching an environment of increasing deep-layer southwesterly shear and SSTs below 26 degrees Celsius, which should induce weakening beginning later today that will continue through early next week. The latest SHIPS guidance indicates the vertical wind shear will strengthen to 30 kt by Mon and continue increasing through the end of the 5-day forecast period. Therefore, Marie is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Monday and a tropical depression by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is held a bit higher than the model consensus through the first 12-24 hours of the forecast, since Marie has yet to show signs of weakening. As the environmental conditions become increasingly hostile, the official forecast shows more rapid weakening in line with the consensus intensity guidance. By day 5, simulated satellite imagery suggests the system will be a remnant low devoid of deep convection. Marie's initial motion is 310/8 kt, and the system is expected to generally continue moving northwestward for the next several days along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. A deep-layer trough is expected to dig north of Marie during the middle of next week, which should begin turning the system more northward toward the end of the 5-day forecast period. A larger spread in the guidance is noted at days 4-5, as it remains somewhat unclear how much the trough will influence the weakening system based on timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF models. Overall, the NHC track forecast remains fairly close to the previous one, with slight changes based on the consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 18.4N 126.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 19.1N 127.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 21.2N 131.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 21.9N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-10-03 16:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 031434 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 126.9W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 270SW 345NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 126.9W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 126.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 127.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.2N 131.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 95NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.9N 132.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-10-03 11:05:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030905 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Gamma is strengthening. A central dense overcast with cloud tops to -85C has formed, along with an outer convective band in the eastern semicircle. The aircraft has reported maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 58 kt and reliable- looking surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of 40-45 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The initial motion is again a little to the left of the previous advisory, 305/8 kt. During the next 24-36 h, Gamma is expected to turn northward as it tries to recurve into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. The track guidance, however, is in good agreement that the trough will bypass the tropical cyclone, with a ridge building to the north after 36 h. This should cause Gamma to turn westward or southwestward between the ridge and the Central American cyclonic gyre to the south. There is uncertainty as to whether Gamma will move over the Gulf of Mexico before this turn occurs, as the ECMWF keeps the center inland or very near the coast. The new forecast track is north of the ECMWF, but a little to the south of the previous track. The foreast track calls for landfall on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in about 12 h, followed by the center reaching the Gulf of Mexico in about 36 h and a track near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula thereafter. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening until landfall, and the forecast 12-h intensity of 50 kt could be conservative given current trends. The remainder of the intensity forecast is quite uncertain due to the possibility of land interaction, dry air entrainment, shear, and possible interaction with another system to the east. The intensity guidance again does not show much strengthening if Gamma emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and that part of the new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous one. It should be noted that several models show a low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico after 120 h. Whether this will be Gamma or a new system is unclear at this time. The biggest threat from this large and slow-moving storm is the the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly near and over mountainous terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. Gamma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Sunday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.4N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.2N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 21.7N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 05/0600Z 21.8N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 21.6N 89.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 21.2N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 20.5N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 19.5N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-10-03 11:00:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030900 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.2N 87.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N 88.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.8N 88.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.6N 89.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 90.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.5N 92.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 86.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-10-03 10:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 122 WTPZ43 KNHC 030838 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Marie continues to be a powerful and dangerous hurricane. Cloud tops surrounding the eye have cooled and the center is now surrounded by a ring of convection with tops colder than -70 degrees C. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate ranges have narrowed considerably to 115-122 kt, so there is higher confidence in the cyclone's strength. The initial advisory intensity is being kept at 115 kt and is in agreement with both of the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environment surrounding Marie will soon become rather hostile and the hurricane will likely not maintain this intensity for much longer. By later today, increasing southwesterly winds aloft should begin to degrade the symmetry of the cyclone. Later tonight, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm. And by Monday, Marie is expected be in an environment characterized by vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt, low- to mid-level relative humidity values of less than 40 percent, and over waters cooler than 25 degrees C. These increasingly negative factors are expected to cause Marie to begin weakening later today, with rapid weakening possible Sunday into Monday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus intensity guidance, and indicates that Marie should weaken to a tropical storm on Sunday night and a tropical depression early next week. By the end of the forecast period, the system is expected to become a post tropical cyclone devoid of deep convection. Marie continues to move northwestward and is forecast to continue to do so through the remainder of the weekend as it moves along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge is forecast to expand westward early next week, which should force the cyclone to turn to the west-northwest. Toward the end of the 5-day forecast period, a large deep-layer trough north of Marie should cause it to begin a turn to the right. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 17.9N 126.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.3N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 21.5N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.0N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.0N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 24.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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