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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-10-03 22:43:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 032043 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.3W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.3W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 127.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 128.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.6N 129.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.9N 131.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 127.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-10-03 22:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Surface observations from the Yucatan Peninsula along with high-resolution visible satellite imagery indicated that the center of Gamma made landfall in the vicinity of Tulum, Mexico, shortly before 1700 UTC. Earlier aircraft observations and pressure measurements from Tulum showed that the system was very near hurricane strength when it made landfall. A ragged eye appeared in the visible images shortly after the center crossed the coast, but that feature has since become obscured. Since Gamma has likely been slowly weakening while moving over land, the current intensity has been set to 55 kt. Continued gradual weakening is likely into Sunday while the center either moves over land or interacts with nearby land. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin by Monday, but the numerical guidance is not very enthusiastic about intensification over the Gulf, probably due to the combination of drier air and the interaction with another low pressure system to the east. The official intensity forecast is not much different from the model consensus. Gamma has been moving northwestward, but it is expected to turn north-northwestward while moving near and into a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next day or so. The global models predict that a trough to the north of the tropical cyclone will lift northeastward and bypass Gamma. In a couple of days, a ridge is forecast to build back, albeit weakly, across the Gulf of Mexico. This is expected to cause the system to turn westward to southwestward over the latter part of the forecast period. The more reliable global models show the system meandering over the southern Bay of Campeche in 4 to 5 days, and so does the official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma has moved inland, tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through this evening and are expected to spread along the north coast within the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 20.7N 87.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0600Z 21.3N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 22.0N 88.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 05/0600Z 22.1N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 22.0N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 21.0N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 20.0N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 20.0N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-10-03 22:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 032036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN MEXICO... INCLUDING COZUMEL...AND DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF PUNTA ALLEN TO DZILAM MEXICO...INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 87.7W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 87.7W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.3N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 88.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.1N 88.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.0N 89.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 90.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 92.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 93.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 87.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-10-03 16:57:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031457 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Observations from both the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Gamma has continued to strengthen this morning. The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, with an eye trying to become evident on high-resolution satellite images from the GOES-16 mesoscale sectors. Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft support an intensity of 60 kt, and the storm could strengthen a little more as long as the center remains over water. Since Gamma will be near or at hurricane intensity when it makes landfall later today, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Gamma should weaken some while it moves over land tonight. Some re-intensification is likely after the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, the numerical guidance does not show much strengthening during the next few days, possibly due to the influence of drier air and/or the interaction with another area of low pressure to the east of Gamma. The official intensity forecast is near or above the model consensus. Gamma continues northwestward at near 8 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn north-northwestward and move through a break in the subtropical ridge through 36 hours or so. Thereafter, a trough to the north moves eastward, bypassing Gamma, and later in the forecast period a ridge builds weakly over the Gulf of Mexico. This should cause the cyclone to turn toward the west and southwest. The official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, TVCN. Although Gamma has strengthened, its biggest threat continues to be torrential rains, flooding, and mudslides especially near and over mountainous terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Gamma is very near hurricane strength and will be near or at hurricane intensity when the center moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula later today. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for portions of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm conditions are already occurring. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.0N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1200Z 21.8N 88.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 05/0000Z 22.2N 88.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 22.3N 88.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 22.1N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 21.0N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 20.0N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-10-03 16:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN...INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR * NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN MEXICO INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO PUNTA ALLEN MEXICO * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N 88.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N 88.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.3N 88.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.1N 89.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.0N 93.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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