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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-10-04 10:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040834 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 The satellite presentation of Marie has continued to degrade overnight with a less symmetric cloud pattern, no signs of an eye, and perhaps some indication that the mid-level circulation is beginning to decouple from the low-level center. The initial intensity is reduced to 90 kt, consistent with the latest estimates from TAFB/SAB. Further rapid weakening is expected today as shear is forecast to increase while the hurricane moves over cooler waters. Marie should lose its deep convection around day 4 due to more cold water and higher shear, so remnant low status is forecast then. The new intensity forecast is similar to the last one, near or below the model consensus. The hurricane is still headed northwestward near 7 kt. The eastern Pacific subtropical ridge to the north should keep Marie moving generally west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next few days. Near the end of the forecast period, Marie could turn more poleward due to an approaching mid-latitude trough. The model guidance is fairly divergent at long range, however, with some of the guidance showing the tropical cyclone being too shallow to feel the trough and continuing a northwest track, with others recurving ahead of the trough. The new forecast shows a north-northwest turn as a compromise, just a little west of the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 20.1N 128.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.7N 131.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.4N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 23.2N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 24.9N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z 26.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-10-04 10:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040832 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.1W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.1W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 127.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 130.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 131.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.4N 133.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.2N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.9N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 128.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-04 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040233 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Marie crossed the 26 degree SST isotherm earlier this evening and the cold waters and accompanying dry,stable air are having a big impact on the storm. Recent microwave imagery shows that the hurricane no longer has an closed eyewall in the southern portion of its inner core. Furthermore, cloud top temperatures have warmed and the hurricane's eye is barely discernible. A blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak numbers from TAFB is the primary basis for the initial intensity of 100 kt. Continued rapid weakening is anticipated for the next 36 to 48 h as Marie encounters very hostile environmental conditions. After that time, continued weakening is likely and most of the dynamical models indicate that the cyclone will lose its convection by around day 5, if not a little sooner. The hurricane is moving northwestward near 7 kt. A ridge extending westward from southwestern U.S. should keep Marie moving generally west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next several days. Near the end of the forecast period, Marie will likely turn northward ahead of a deep layer trough approaching from the northwest. The spread in the track guidance is quite low, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high, particularly since almost no change was made to the previous advisory forecast. Both the track and intensity forecasts are based on the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.5N 127.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.2N 128.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.6N 131.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 22.3N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 22.9N 133.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.7N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 24.7N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-10-04 04:31:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040230 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF PUNTA ALLEN TO DZILAM MEXICO...INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 88.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 88.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N 88.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N 88.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.1N 88.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.8N 89.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.3N 90.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.7N 91.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.9N 93.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 88.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-10-03 22:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032046 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Marie is finally beginning to show signs of weakening. Recent GOES-17 infrared satellite imagery indicates cloud tops are warming in the western eyewall, and water vapor imagery shows drier air impinging on the western periphery of the storm. Despite this, there is still deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70 degrees Celsius persisting in the eastern eyewall. The initial intensity is slightly lowered to 110 kt with this advisory based on a blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications and a 16 UTC SATCON estimate of 114 kt. Marie is likely beginning to experience increased deep-layer southwesterly wind shear as it moves toward the 26 degree Celsius sea surface temperature isotherm. With environmental conditions becoming increasingly hostile, Marie is expected to steadily, and perhaps rapidly, weaken over the next several days. Marie is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm within 36 hours, as the storm moves over cooler waters and into an environment with 30 kt of vertical wind shear. Steady weakening should continue through early next week, and the system is expected to become a tropical depression by Wednesday and a remnant low on Thursday. Now that the system is finally weakening, the latest NHC intensity forecast reflects a more rapid downward trend supported by the model consensus aids. Marie's initial motion is 325/8 kt, slightly more northwestward than the previous advisory. Marie should continue moving northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered during the first 2-3 days of the forecast. Then, the bulk of the guidance indicates Marie will slow down and turn more northward late next week ahead of a deep-layer trough to the north of the storm. Given this recurving scenario, there is more significant spread in the guidance at day 4 and beyond, with the GFS still farther to the right than most other models. Overall, the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly right of the previous one in agreement with the TVCE/HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.1N 127.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.8N 128.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.6N 129.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.9N 131.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 25.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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