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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-02 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021447 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Marie's structure has not changed significantly since the previous advisory. A recent AMSR microwave image showed that the hurricane continues to have a closed eyewall that is a little thin on the southeast side, but there are no clear indications that an eyewall replacement is occuring. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB diverged from 6 hours ago, with TAFB's going up to T6.5 and SAB's falling to T5.5. In addition, final-T numbers from the objective ADT scheme have decreased since six hours ago. Because of the estimate discrepancies, the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt. Marie is moving west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 12 kt, just a little to the left of and slower than the previous motion estimate. A large mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United States continues to be the main driver of Marie's motion, but the hurricane should begin to reach a break in the ridge and turn toward the northwest in the next 24 hours. After that time, a general motion toward the northwest or west-northwest should continue through the end of the forecast period. The spread in the guidance does increase a bit by days 4 and 5, which appears to be related to the depth of the cyclone and how it interacts with the steering flow. Overall, though, the guidance envelope has not shifted, and the NHC forecast was only slowed down a bit to be more in line with the latest TVCE multi-model consensus and HCCA aid. Marie should remain in a low-shear environment and over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for the next 24 hours, during which time some additional strengthening is possible. Any intensification could be thwarted by an eyewall replacement, but as stated above, that does not appear to be occuring at this time. Increasing deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters should induce a definitive weakening trend after 24 hours, with Marie falling below hurricane strength by day 3, and then becoming a tropical depression by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward a bit during the weakening phase and lies near or just above the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 16.5N 124.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 18.3N 127.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.0N 129.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.6N 130.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 21.0N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg/Reinhart
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-10-02 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 021447 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 124.3W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 210SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 124.3W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 127.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 130.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 132.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 137.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 124.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/REINHART
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-10-02 10:44:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020844 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Marie has strengthened further since the last advisory, with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB now at 115 kt and the CIMSS ADT estimate now near 130 kt. However, during the past couple of hours, satellite imagery shows that the eye has become less well defined. It is unclear at this time whether this is because the hurricane is starting an eyewall replacement or whether it has peaked in intensity. The initial intensity for this advisory is increased to a possibly conservative 115 kt. Marie currently has good to excellent cirrus outflow in all directions. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/13 kt as the hurricane is being steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. The system is expected to move toward the west-northwest or northwest at a slower forward speed during the next several days as it approaches the western periphery of the ridge and a broad mid-latitude trough well off the California coast. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario through 72 h, but there remains increasing spread after that time, which is likely due to model differences in the vertical depth of Marie and how much the trough influences its steering. The guidance shifted a little to the north of the previous guidance through 72 h, so the new forecast track is also nudged northward during that time. The new track is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model. If Marie is not undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, conditions appear favorable for additional strengthening during the next 12-18 h. After that, the system will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and entraining dryer air, which should cause weakening. An faster weakening is expected after 36 h due to increasing westerly shear. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and through 72 h it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.2N 123.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 16.9N 124.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.9N 126.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.0N 127.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.9N 129.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 20.6N 130.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.1N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 23.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-10-02 10:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020843 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 124.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 126.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 127.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.9N 129.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.6N 130.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 131.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 123.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-10-02 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020234 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Marie is still strengthening this evening. Satellite images indicate that the hurricane has a well-defined compact eye with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding that feature. The Dvorak classifications at 0000Z were T5.5/102 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but since the cyclone has continued to strengthen, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt. This value is below the latest Dvorak ADT numbers that are currently around 6.2/120 kt. Marie has strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt over the past 24 hours. Satellite fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest on the south side of a mid-level ridge, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 285/13 kt. The system is expected to move slower to the west-northwest or northwest during the next several days as it nears the western periphery of the ridge and moves toward a broad trough well off the California coast. The models are in fair agreement in the short term, but there is a notable amount of spread in the guidance in 4 to 5 days, likely due to differences in the vertical depth of Marie and how much the trough influences its steering. The NHC track forecast remains near the consensus aids, and is largely an update of the previous one. The major hurricane will likely continue to strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours while it remains in quite favorable conditions of low vertical wind shear, a moist air mass, and over warm 28-29 C SSTs. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles could occur during that time, which might cause fluctuations in the cyclone's strength. By Saturday, Marie is expected to level off in intensity and then rapidly weaken when the hurricane crosses the 26-deg-C SST isotherm and moves into an environment of increasing west-southwesterly shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast remains above the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with the bulk of the models beyond 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.6N 122.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.3N 123.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.3N 125.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.4N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 20.2N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 20.8N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 22.0N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 23.4N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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