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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-30 22:44:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302044 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Marie has continued to become better organized today, with a well-defined convective band that wraps more than completely around the cloud system center. This yields a Dvorak intensity estimate of at least 65 kt, and subjective and objective T-numbers from SAB and UW-CIMSS respectively also correspond to an intensity of 65 kt. Therefore, the system is being upgraded to a hurricane, which is the first for the month of September in this relatively quiet eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The vertical wind shear has decreased and is forecast to remain low for the next few days. This, combined with a moist low- to mid-tropospheric air mass and warm sea surface temperatures, should lead to an environment that is very conducive for strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI Index shows a significant probability of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours. Therefore, the official forecast calls for Marie to become a major hurricane tomorrow with additional strengthening during the succeeding day. This is close to the predictions from the two corrected consensus techniques, HCCA and FSSE. By 72 hours, Marie should have begun passing over progressively cooler waters, so a steady weakening trend is likely to be underway by that time. The motion continues just north of due west, or 275/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning hasn't changed much from the previous advisories. Over the next few days, the hurricane should be steered on a westward to west-northwestward course on the south side of a mid-level subtropical ridge. Right around the end of the forecast period, Marie should begin to turn more to the right in response to a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 14.3N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.4N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.6N 122.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 16.6N 124.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 17.7N 126.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 18.6N 128.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.3N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 21.8N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-30 22:37:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 302037 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.1W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.1W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.4N 117.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.6N 122.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.6N 124.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.7N 126.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 128.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 131.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.8N 134.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-30 16:43:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 301443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Marie's satellite presentation has been gradually improving. The center is embedded beneath a central dense overcast feature, and the convective band within the western semicircle has become a little more pronounced and continuous. In addition, a mid-level eye has begun to form, as observed in a 1200 UTC SSMIS microwave pass. Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the most recent SATCON estimate was 53 kt (at around 0900 UTC). Based on these numbers and the continued improvement of Marie's structure, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. The stage appears set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days. Water vapor imagery indicates that the easterly shear over the cyclone has continued to decrease and should be generally low for the next 3 days, and upper-level divergence will also be in place during that period to help ventilate the storm. The thermodynamics are also favorable for fast strengthening, highlighted by sea surface temperatures of 28-29 degrees Celsius and plenty of moisture in the surrounding environment. Due to these conditions, the NHC forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification during the next couple of days, with a peak intensity likely occuring sometime between 48 and 60 hours. The peak intensity shown in the official forecast has been nudged upward slightly from the previous prediction, following the trends in the intensity guidance, however it's noteworthy that even this forecast is 5-10 kt lower than the solutions provided by the HCCA consensus aid and the COAMPS-TC model. In about 3 days, cooler waters and then increasing shear (especially on days 4 and 5) should induce a gradual weakening trend. Marie is moving westward (275/14 kt) to the south of a strong mid-tropospheric high centered near the U.S./Mexico border. This ridge is expected to maintain Marie on a westward or west-northwestward trajectory for the next 2-3 days. Even though a mid- to upper-level low near 130W longitude has caused a break in the ridge, the models have trended toward this feature weakening during the next few days. This has in turn caused many of the models to trend westward with Marie's track after day 3, as was noted in the previous advisory, but there is also greater spread than there was yesterday. The NHC track forecast remains closest to the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, near the middle of the guidance envelope, which is bracketed on the right side by the GFS (and its ensemble mean) and the left side by the ECMWF (and its ensemble mean) by the end of the forecast period. The 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a tropical storm of Marie's size due to a large fetch of southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 14.2N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-30 16:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 301443 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.8W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.8W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-30 10:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Geostationary satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to become better organized with a curved band of convection over the western semicircle and a small central dense overcast feature. An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0515 UTC was very helpful in pinpointing the center, and it also revealed that Marie's tropical-storm-force wind field is quite small. Subjective satellite intensity estimates of T3.0 and the scatterometer data yielded an intensity of 45 kt at 0600 UTC, but given the continued improvement in organization, the advisory intensity has been set at 50 kt. Although Marie's outflow is somewhat restricted over the northeastern portion of the storm due to some northeasterly shear, it has been expanding over the past few hours indicating that the shear is decreasing as anticipated. Marie is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment during the next couple of days. These very conducive conditions favor strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady to rapid intensification over the next 48 hours. The official forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS, LGEM, and HFIP corrected consensus models which all predict periods of rapid strengthening over the next 48 to 60 hours. The updated NHC wind speed forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening and a slightly higher peak intensity than in the previous advisory. After 72 hours, cooler waters and a more stable environment should result in steady to rapid weakening. Maria is moving westward at about 14 kt, a little faster than before. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy as Marie is expected to move westward to west-northwestward during the next few days while it remains to the south of a deep-layer ridge. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is predicted when Marie approaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a more westward track during the first 60 hours or so, and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Thereafter, the NHC track is fairly similar to the previous advisory, and it again lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Marie's 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a small tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 14.1N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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