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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-10-01 16:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 029 WTPZ23 KNHC 011436 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 119.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-10-01 10:35:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010835 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Recent microwave data and satellite images indicate that Marie has become much better organized over the past several hours, with a nearly completely closed eye noted in a 0451Z AMSU composite microwave overpass. The initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON. Marie appears to have resumed its anticipated rapid intensification (RI), and this RI should continue for the next day or so while the hurricane remains in an environment of very low vertical wind shear while over warm waters. After 48 h, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over progressively cooler waters, while encountering increasing vertical wind shear and a drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should cause Marie to begin weakening by Saturday. Rapid weakening could occur by late this weekend when the cyclone is expected to be over waters with SSTs cooler than 26 degrees C while vertical wind shear becomes greater than 25 kt. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus aid HCCA and the DSHP guidance. The initial motion is 280/15 kt. Marie is forecast to continue moving westward around a subtropical ridge to its north and northeast for the next 12 to 24 hours. A gradual turn to the west-northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur beginning later tonight as the ridge weakens slightly. By late in the forecast period, a turn to the northwest should occur as Maria reaches a break in the ridge. The models are generally in good agreement on this scenario, but vary somewhat in how sharp of a turn to the right Marie makes later on in the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.8N 118.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.0N 126.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 19.8N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 21.1N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-10-01 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 269 WTPZ23 KNHC 010834 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 117.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 126.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 130.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 132.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-10-01 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010250 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Passive microwave satellite data and satellite intensity estimates indicate that Marie has undergone a brief intensity hiatus since the previous advisory. Date from the 2055Z AMSR and 2306Z SSMI microwave passes indicated that the earlier eye feature has eroded some and opened up on the east side due to dry air entrainment and modest easterly vertical wind shear of about 10 kt. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt based on subjective Dvorak classifications of T4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates of T4.1/67 kt and 62 kt from ADT and SATCON, respectively. The motion estimate is 280/14 kt. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement through about 96 h on Marie moving west-northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. Thereafter, there is considerable divergence in the guidance with the ECMWF and UKMET taking Marie more westward, while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models take the hurricane northward into a break in the ridge; the latter scenario is preferred by the various simple and corrected consensus models. As a result, no significant changes were required to the previous forecast, and the new forecast track essentially lies down the model of the tightly packed consensus model envelope. Although the eyewall has eroded somewhat, the small inner-core wind field still appears to be intact based on low-level cloud features seen in 36-37 GHz satellite imagery. Once the narrow dry air intrusions mix out in about 6 hours or so, rapid intensification (RI) should resume and continue through 48 hours while the shear gradually decreases to near zero by then. By 60 hours and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period, cooler sea-surface temperatures, along with cold upwelling generated by Marie, should cause the hurricane to weaken, with rapid weakening likely beginning by 72 hours when significant southwesterly vertical wind shear kicks in ahead of a deep-layer trough that will be moving eastward out of the central Pacific. The new official intensity forecast is essentially identical to the previous NHC forecast, and lies along the extreme upper end of the intensity guidance, about midway between the Navy COAMPS-TC model (CTCI) and the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.5N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 14.7N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 15.3N 121.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 19.1N 129.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.7N 131.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 22.6N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-10-01 04:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010249 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.5W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.5W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 118.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 121.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 129.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 131.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.6N 134.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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