Home › forecast
 

Keywords :   


Tag: forecast

Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 14

2020-09-10 16:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 101438 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Vertical shear appears to have lessened somewhat over Rene, with the estimated center more embedded within the convective cloud mass. The storm has also developed a better defined anticyclonic outflow pattern. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, and that will be used for the advisory intensity. Since the vertical shear is not expected to be strong for the next 48 hours or so, gradual strengthening is anticipated during that time, and Rene is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday. This is in reasonable agreement with the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN. In the latter half of the forecast period, increased westerly shear over the tropical cyclone is expected, which should lead to weakening. Rene continues on a west-northwestward track, and is moving at about 285/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is currently located on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. Over the next few days, Rene should move around the western periphery of this ridge and turn from a west-northwestward to a north-northwestward heading. Around the end of the forecast period, a high building to the northwest of the cyclone will likely cause a significant slowing of the forward speed. The official track forecast is a little left of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.6N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.0N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 19.6N 39.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 20.4N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 21.7N 43.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 23.1N 45.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 24.7N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 27.6N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 29.2N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-09-10 16:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101438 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 The highest winds in a recent scatterometer pass have decreased a little since last evening, and they remain embedded within deep convection which is displaced to the north of the center of circulation. Paulette's intensity is estimated to have decreased to 45 kt based on this ASCAT pass and Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The sheared convection has been tugging Paulette's center northward at times, causing wobbles in the estimated longer-term west-northwestward motion of 295/9 kt. For the next 4 days or so, fluctuations in the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north of Paulette will cause the cyclone's trajectory to vary between west-northwest and northwest, with a peak in forward speed around day 3. At the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough is expected to move across the northeastern United States, with a mid-tropospheric high becoming established over the central Atlantic. This should allow Paulette to begin to recurve over the western Atlantic, turning northward by day 5. The only notable change in the track guidance on this cycle was a slight westward shift among some of the models on days 4 and 5, and the NHC track forecast follows suit, lying close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) aid. Southwesterly shear has increased over the cyclone as expected, with the latest UW-CIMSS analysis now between 35 and 40 kt. SHIPS diagnoses suggest that the shear over Paulette should peak in about 12 hours, thus a little more weakening is anticipated over the next day or so. The shear is then forecast to gradually abate, and both the GFS and ECMWF versions of the SHIPS guidance show the shear magnitudes decreasing to 10 kt or less in 3-4 days. This more favorable environment, combined with a more unstable air mass and sea surface temperatures exceeding 29 degrees Celsius, are expected to allow Paulette to restrengthen and become a hurricane as it moves in the vicinity of Bermuda. The new NHC intensity forecast has been raised a bit between days 2 and 4 compared to the previous prediction, although it still lies below the intensity consensus, IVCN, and the HCCA solutions. Therefore, additional upward adjustments to the forecast intensity may be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 21.5N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 21.8N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 22.6N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 23.8N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 25.4N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 26.9N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 30.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 32.5N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-09-10 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 101437 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 35.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 35.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 35.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 37.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.6N 39.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.4N 41.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.7N 43.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.1N 45.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.7N 47.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 27.6N 49.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 29.2N 50.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 35.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

 

Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-09-10 16:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 101437 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 49.1W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 49.1W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 48.7W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.8N 50.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.6N 52.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.8N 54.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.4N 56.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.9N 58.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 49.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

 

Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-09-10 10:38:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100838 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Several recent microwave overpasses indicate that Rene continues to be affected by easterly shear, with the low-level center located near the eastern edge of the ongoing bursting convection. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range and have changed little since the last advisory. Based on that, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. There is no change in the overall track forecast philosophy. Rene should move generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest into a weakness in the subtropical ridge partly caused by Tropical Storm Paulette. Late in the forecast period, the track forecast becomes more problematic due to uncertainties in how much ridging will build north of Rene and how close it will be to the larger Paulette. The track guidance during this time shows increasing spread and some westward shift from the previous advisory. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 h, then it lies to the left of the previous track at 96 and 120 h. However, at these times, it lies to the right of the various consensus models. The shear should gradually diminish during the next 48-60 h, and this should allow Rene to strengthen to or near hurricane strength. After that time, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to cause gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over increasing sea surface temperatures. The new official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. It lies near the various intensity consensus models through 72 h, but is weaker than those models at 96 and 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.2N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 18.6N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 19.1N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 19.8N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.0N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 22.4N 44.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 24.1N 45.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 28.6N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [458] [459] [460] [461] [462] [463] [464] [465] [466] [467] [468] [469] [470] [471] [472] [473] [474] [475] [476] [477] next »