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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-09-09 22:29:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 092029 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 34 KT.......210NE 90SE 60SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.9N 48.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 60SE 30SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.4N 50.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 30SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.3N 54.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 30SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.3N 55.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 30.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-09 16:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 091459 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Morning visible satellite images show that Paulette's center is located beneath a thin veil of cirrus and displaced to the south of the deep convection. Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and a recent ASCAT pass which showed an area of 45-50 kt winds northwest of the center, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. A large upper-level trough is located to the northwest of Paulette, and this feature is producing 20-30 kt of south-southwesterly shear over the cyclone. The shear is forecast to increase well over 30 kt during the next day or two as Paulette gets closer to the upper-level disturbance, which should cause the cyclone's maximum winds to gradually decrease through day 3. The shear is forecast to abate somewhat and back around from the southeast by days 4 and 5, which could allow Paulette to restrengthen a little bit over the subtropical Atlantic at that time. The new NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and is generally close to the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus. Although Paulette has been hopscotching around a bit, likely being influenced by the sheared convection, the 12-hour motion is now toward the west-northwest (290/8 kt). Subtropical ridging to the north of Paulette is forecast to keep the cyclone on a westward or west-northwestward trajectory for the next 48 hours. After that time, the ridge is likely to weaken a bit, which should allow Paulette to move toward the northwest with some increase in forward speed on days 3 though 5. There is a typical amount of spread among the track models for this forecast, and while they all agree on the general future trajectory, there are some speed differences. In particular, the UKMET and HWRF start out much slower than the other models, and the ECWMF is much faster than the rest of the guidance by days 4 and 5. Relying on continuity and the model consensus aids, the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted very little from the previous prediction. The initial and forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii have been expanded based on the recent scatterometer data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 20.0N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 20.7N 49.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 20.9N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 21.3N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 22.2N 54.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 23.5N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 27.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-09 16:58:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 091458 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.5W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......210NE 90SE 60SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 105SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.5W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 46.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...190NE 70SE 40SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.7N 49.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.9N 51.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.3N 53.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.2N 54.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.5N 55.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 40SE 0SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 27.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 46.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-09 16:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091431 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Although easterly shear has been affecting the system, Rene is producing vigorous deep convection, along with a broad convective band, over its western semicircle. Scatterometer data indicate winds to 35 knots over the northwestern quadrant, and therefore the system is again being designated as a tropical storm. The cyclone should be within an environment of moderate vertical shear, on the western side of an upper-level anticyclone, for the next couple of days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane late this week. By the weekend, increasing westerly shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus. Rene is currently moving west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt, on the southern side of a mid-level ridge. A weakness in the ridge near 40W longitude is likely to cause the storm to turn toward the northwest in 2 to 3 days, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. By the end of the forecast period, Rene's forward progress should slow as it encounters a block in the mid-level flow. As anticipated, the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous one, but not as far to the left as the latest corrected multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 17.6N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 18.1N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.8N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.4N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 21.7N 40.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 23.5N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 27.0N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 28.7N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-09 16:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 091431 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 31.5W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 31.5W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 31.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.1N 33.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 35.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.4N 39.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.7N 40.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.5N 42.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 27.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 45.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 31.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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