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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-09-09 10:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090846 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with Rene is increasing and becoming better organized, with a broad convective band forming in the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates indicate that the cyclone is close to regaining tropical storm strength, but the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt to see if the convection persists and what upcoming scatterometer data shows. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. There is little change in the forecast philosophy for the first 48-60 h of the forecast, with Rene expected to continue west-northwestward. This part of the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. After 60 h, much of the track guidance has shifted significantly to the left and shows less of a northward turn by 96-120 hr. This shift has left the GFS and the old forecast on the right side of the guidance envelope. This part of the new forecast track is moved to the left of the previous track, but it lies to the right of the various consensus models. If the current guidance trends continue, additional westward shifts of the later part of the forecast track may be necessary in subsequent advisories, Conditions appear generally favorable for Rene to strengthen during the next 48-60 h, although the cyclone will be moving over sea surface temperatures of near 26.5C during that time. The intensity forecast calls for Rene to re-intensify and become a hurricane by the 60 h point. After that, the cyclone is likely to encounter moderate to strong northwesterly shear which should cause weakening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged since the previous forecast, and it lies between the ICON and HCCA intensity consensus forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 17.4N 30.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 18.7N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.8N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 22.2N 40.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 24.2N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 28.0N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 30.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-09-09 10:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090846 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 30.5W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 30.5W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 29.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.7N 34.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 36.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.8N 38.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.2N 40.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.2N 41.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.0N 43.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 30.0N 42.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 30.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-09-09 10:42:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090842 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 The 20-30 kt of southwesterly shear continues to have a significant impact on Paulette's inner core. A 0615 UTC Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager overpass showed a severely sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed surface circulation displaced to the south of the cloud canopy. Although the objective ADT and an earlier SATCON analysis yield 45 kt, The initial intensity is held at a generous 50 kt for this advisory in deference to last night's scatterometer pass showing a few 50 kt winds. In addition to the moderate, persistent shear, the RAMMB/CIRA Average Vertical Instability parameter time series analysis revealed a higher than normal (1995-2010) statically stable environment, another potential inhibiting factor. This was further supported by the statistical-dynamical intensity models showing a rather parched mid-troposphere (less than 58%). Therefore, slow weakening of Paulette is forecast during the next few days. Toward the end of the period, the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models continue to indicate a more southerly, diffluent pattern which should aid in some restrengthening, and this is indicated in the NHC forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/7 kt. Paulette should turn west-northwestward later today and westward on Thursday around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone. A turn northwestward is predicted on Saturday as Paulette moves further into a growing weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic. The official forecast is an update of the previous one through 72 hrs, then is shifted to the left through day 5 to lies between the HCCA consensus and the the HFIP/NUOPC Project's 5EMN 133 member multi-model ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 19.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 19.7N 46.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.8N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 22.7N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 25.9N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 28.7N 61.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-09-09 10:41:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090841 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.6W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 75SE 105SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.6W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.7N 46.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.8N 52.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.7N 54.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.9N 58.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 61.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-09-09 04:51:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090251 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 Microwave and satellite data suggest that vertical shear is weakening Paulette. The center is near the southern side of a large thunderstorm cluster, with the bulk of deep convection in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt, a little lower than the other satellite estimates, and 50 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed. With Paulette already on a weakening trend, it seems that the window for significant strengthening has closed. More likely, a gradual decay of the storm is anticipated due to moderate or strong shear during the next few days. This shear could abate by the end of the forecast period due to Paulette moving around the northeastern side of a large mid-to-upper level low, which is a common position for the re-intensification of a tropical cyclone after encountering the mid-oceanic trough. The new forecast is lowered from the previous one for the first few days and then raised slightly at the longer ranges. This is consistent with a blend of the intensity model consensus, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance at the end. The storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. There has been some convergence of the model guidance during the next few days as Paulette should move west-northwestward tomorrow and westward on Thursday around a mid-level ridge. Thus, little change has been made from the previous forecast during the first 48-72h. Afterwards, the forecast is shifted to the north by 45-60 n mi under the assumption that Paulette stays coherent as a tropical cyclone and takes a turn to the northwest this weekend on the eastern flank of the aforementioned mid-to-upper level low. The new track forecast is northeast of the model consensus and places less emphasis on models, like the 12Z ECMWF, which show Paulette staying weaker and missing the full influence of the low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 19.2N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 19.8N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 20.2N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 20.6N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 20.8N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 21.1N 52.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 21.9N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 24.4N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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