Home › forecast
 

Keywords :   


Tag: forecast

Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-09-10 10:38:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100838 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 34.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 34.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.6N 36.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.1N 38.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.8N 40.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 42.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.4N 44.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.1N 45.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 28.6N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 34.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

 

Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 14

2020-09-10 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100837 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Although Paulette's center of circulation has separated farther south from the cloud mass during the past several hours, the cyclone is still producing an area of deep convection consisting of -79C cold cloud tops. Earlier scatterometer data indicated surface winds of 45-50 kt in this region of coldest cloud tops, so it's reasonable to think that those winds are still present. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. Both the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models show the shear magnitude increasing to 35-40 kt today. As a result, Paulette is expected to begin weakening by this evening. Over the weekend, however, the shear is forecast to decrease gradually and shift from the southeast and become a bit more diffluent, which should allow for reintensification. Several of the skilled intensity guidance, including the aforementioned SHIPS, and the consensus models, HCCA and IVCN, now show Paulette as a hurricane in 4 days, or sooner (COAMPS-TC). The official intensity forecast is once again adjusted upward, and lies between the HCCA (a little higher) and the Decay SHIPS intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt and Paulette should continue in this general motion through Friday as a mid-tropospheric ridge temporarily builds over the central Atlantic in response to a mid- to upper-level trough, extending southwestward from the Azores Islands, weakening and lifting northeastward. By Saturday morning, a break in the aforementioned ridge develops due to a combination of mid- to upper-level low situated to the northwest of the cyclone and a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving off of the northeast U.S. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory, but a little faster beyond 48 hours, and is shifted to the left, closer to the HCCA and TVCN consensus models at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 20.9N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 21.3N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 21.8N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 22.8N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 24.1N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 25.7N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 27.1N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 29.7N 63.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 32.0N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-09-10 10:35:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 100835 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 49.0W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 60SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 210SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 49.0W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 48.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.3N 50.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 50SE 30SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.8N 52.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.8N 54.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 55.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 25.7N 57.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.1N 59.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 29.7N 63.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 32.0N 64.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

 

Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 12

2020-09-10 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100234 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Rene remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with modest mid-/upper-level easterly vertical wind shear of 12-15 kt undercutting the otherwise favorable outflow layer. The combination of the shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air have caused the convective pattern to continue to fluctuate since the previous advisory. Although a recent burst of deep convection has again pulsed near and to he west of the center, the intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 09/2305Z ASCAT-A overpass indicating barely 34 kt winds in the northwest quadrant. The 34-kt wind radius was also expanded in that quadrant based on the ASCAT wind data. The initial motion remains west-northwestward motion or 285/11 kt. Under the influence of a mid-level ridge, Rene is expected to continue moving west-northward over the eastern Atlantic for the next few days. A weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop around 40W-45W longitude, which will be partly induced by Tropical Storm Paulette's circulation, causing Rene to slow down and turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest on 3-4 days. By day 5, Rene's northward motion is forecast to be blocked significantly by a building ridge to the north of the cyclone as TS Paulette moves farther away. It is possible that Rene could stall or even make a small looping motion if the storm gets trapped within the much larger ridge. The new NHC forecast is to the left or south of the previous advisory track, but not as far left as the consensus models or the preponderance of the remaining guidance. Rene's upper-level outflow is forecast to remain intact for the next 60 h or so, which would should allow for at least gradual strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast by both the GFS and the ECMWF models to decrease to near zero in the 36-48 h time frame, and that is when Rene should be able to take advantage of marginal sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26.5C and modest mid-level humidity conditions, and obtain hurricane status in 48-60 h. Thereafter, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to induce gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over warmer SSTs of 27-28C. The official intensity forecast is similar to the GFS model intensity forecast, and lies below the simple consensus model IVCN and the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 18.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.4N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 18.9N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 19.4N 39.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 20.5N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.8N 43.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 23.5N 45.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 26.8N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 28.3N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-09-10 04:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 191 WTNT42 KNHC 100233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Paulette remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center southwest of a large area of deep convection. Recent scatterometer data showed peak winds of 45-50 kt, so 50 kt is used as the initial wind speed, which happens to be quite similar to a blend of the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. Paulette should begin to weaken tomorrow and continue on a downward trend for 2-3 days as strong shear impacts the cyclone. No change has been made to the forecast through Saturday. Thereafter, the storm is likely to move into a lower-shear environment on the northeastern side of a mid/upper-level low, with SSTs rising to about 29C. There is better agreement among the models tonight that Paulette will survive the shear and be able to take advantage of that favorable environment. In fact, almost all of the most reliable guidance, save LGEM/SHIPS, show the storm becoming a hurricane by 120 hours, and the global models are trending in that direction. The new NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, near the model consensus, but isn't quite as high as the regional hurricane models. The storm is moving at about the same motion as before (295/9 kt). Paulette should turn westward tomorrow as it weakens and encounters stronger low/mid-level ridging. A weakness in the ridge develops by the weekend due to the aforementioned mid/upper-level low, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn and move faster toward the northwest. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, lying on the western side of the guidance after placing heavier weight on the global models and corrected-consensus aids than on the regional hurricane guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 20.9N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.3N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 21.4N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.9N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 22.8N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 24.1N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 25.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 29.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 31.0N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [459] [460] [461] [462] [463] [464] [465] [466] [467] [468] [469] [470] [471] [472] [473] [474] [475] [476] [477] [478] next »