je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-11 04:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 110249 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 240SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 50.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.4N 52.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.6N 54.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 62.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 32.6N 65.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-10 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 102034 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Continuous bursts of deep convection have been ongoing to the north and northeast of Paulette's center of circulation, with the cyclone being affected by nearly 40 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear. The highest intensity estimates are Dvorak classifications of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and that value remains the initial intensity. The shear should reach its peak magnitude this evening, which is likely to cause Paulette to weaken slightly during the next 24 hours. However, gradual re-strengthening is forecast to begin in about 36 hours, and the rate of intensification is expected to increase in 2 to 3 days when the shear could fall to 10 kt or less, along with a more unstable atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures. Paulette is now forecast to become a hurricane by day 3 and continue to intensify through the end of the forecast period. As was advertised in the previous forecast package, the new NHC forecast intensities have been bumped up on days 3 through 5 and now lie near or just below the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus aid. Paulette's heading over the past 6-12 hours has been toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt. The cyclone's trajectory is expected to oscillate between northwest and west-northwest for the next 4 days, being dictated by the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north and the depth of the steering flow depending on Paulette's intensity. The updated NHC track forecast during this period has been nudged a bit to the north, mostly to account for an adjustment of the initial position. The model guidance all agree that Paulette should turn northward around the western side of a central Atlantic high pressure area by day 5, with the expected hurricane likely to make a tight recurvature near Bermuda. There remains some uncertainty on exactly where that turn will occur, but for now the NHC forecast lies between the tighter-turning ECMWF and HCCA models and the more gradually-turning GFS and HWRF models. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 22.1N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 22.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 23.6N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 25.0N 55.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 26.6N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 28.0N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 29.2N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 31.5N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 34.5N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-09-10 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 102033 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 50.1W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 50.1W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 49.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 50SE 30SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.6N 53.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.0N 55.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.6N 56.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.0N 58.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.2N 61.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 31.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 50.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-10 22:31:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 102031 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 It appeared that the storm had become better organized this morning, but that development trend seems to have been at least temporarily interrupted. Rene's central features have become rather ragged-looking, and deep convection has diminished somewhat. It appears that the system is being disrupted a bit by easterly flow that is undercutting the outflow layer. There is also an apparent dearth of low-level inflow over the southern and southeastern portions of the circulation at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain T3.0/45 kt, so the current intensity estimate is unchanged from the previous advisory. Assuming that the upper-level winds will soon become a little more conducive for strengthening, Rene is forecast to become a hurricane by the weekend. The official intensity forecast is a little below the latest model consensus. Rene continues its west-northwestward movement with a motion of near 285/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward for the next few days, while moving around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone. Later in the forecast period, A mid-level high is predicted to build to the northwest of Rene, which should slow down the cyclone's forward progress and cause it to turn to the left. At the present time, it appears that Rene will remain sufficiently separated from Paulette, which is located about 800 n mi to the west, for there not to be a significant binary interaction between the two storms. The official track forecast remains close to the simple dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 18.9N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 19.4N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 20.2N 40.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 21.3N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 22.7N 44.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 24.3N 45.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 25.8N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 27.3N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 27.5N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-09-10 22:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 102030 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 36.8W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 36.8W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 36.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.4N 38.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.2N 40.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.3N 42.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.7N 44.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.3N 45.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.8N 46.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 27.3N 47.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 27.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 36.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [457] [458] [459] [460] [461] [462] [463] [464] [465] [466] [467] [468] [469] [470] [471] [472] [473] [474] [475] [476] next »