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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-08 16:31:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 081431 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO VERDE ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 26.5W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 26.5W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 25.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.8N 28.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.3N 33.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.3N 36.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 26.5N 42.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 29.7N 42.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 26.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-08 10:38:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080838 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 While Rene continues to have a well-defined circulation, satellite imagery indicates that the associated convection remains poorly organized. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-35 kt range. Based on these, along with a 28 kt observation from Sal/GVAC, the initial intensity remains a possible generous 35 kt. The initial motion is westward or 280/13 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy, as a westward motion is expected today, followed by a west-northwestward motion through Thursday as Rene rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. On days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to move more slowly northwestward to north-northwestward through a weakness in the aforementioned ridge. The track guidance has shifted a little eastward after 72 h, and the new track forecast is also nudged eastward during that time. Other than that, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. It is unclear why the convection is currently so poorly organized, although land interaction with the Cabo Verde Islands is a possibility. Conditions generally appear favorable for strengthening during the next three days or so, and much of the intensity guidance forecasts Rene to become a hurricane in 2-3 days time even though the water temperatures gradually decrease along the forecast track. After 72 h, Rene is expected to reach both warmer water and strong westerly shear, with the latter expected to cause the storm to weaken. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast and follows the trend of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 16.4N 24.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 17.1N 29.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 18.8N 34.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 19.8N 37.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 21.0N 39.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 24.5N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 28.6N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-08 10:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 003 WTNT23 KNHC 080837 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO VERDE ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 24.9W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 24.9W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 24.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.1N 29.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.8N 34.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 37.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.0N 39.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.6N 42.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 24.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-08 10:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080835 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 GOES-16 Proxy-VIS and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveals that Paulette's cloud pattern has continued to improve during the past several hours. Specifically, the developing inner core is much more symmetric with new bursts of deep convection (-76C cloud tops) near the surface circulation center. Subsequently, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance indicate increasing southwesterly shear commencing later today. So, only modest strengthening is shown in the NHC foreast during next 24 hours. On Friday, the shear stiffens and becomes less diffluent as the cyclone approaches the high amplitude mid-Atlantic TUTT. Therefore, Gradual weakening is expected to occur at that time. Beyond day 3, there are some mixed signals, specifically in the GFS/FV3 and ECMWF SHIPS output. The GFS/FV3 continues to indicate strong southwesterly shear through day 5 further weakening Paulette to a depression around day 4. The ECMWF SHIPS, however, shows a more southerly and diffluent upper wind pattern supporting reintensification after day 4. The intensity forecast sides with that latter solution and also agrees with the HCCA intensity multi-model indicating the same intensity trend. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325/5 kt. The rather weak synoptic steering pattern consists of a large mid- to upper-level low just west of the Canary Islands and ridging to the northwest of the cyclone. During the next couple of days, the large-scale models show the upper low filling and lifting northeastward, allowing the subtropical ridge to build in behind the departing upper low from the western Atlantic. This change in the pattern should cause Paulette to turn west-northwestward on Wednesday and continue moving in this general motion through early Saturday. Through the remaining portion of the period, the global models indicate a major shortwave trough moving off of the northeast coast of the U.S. and breaking down the western extent of the subtropical ridge/Bermuda high. This growing weakness in the ridge should cause Paulette to turn toward the northwest early Sunday. The official track forecast is a little bit slower and to the right of the previous forecast after day 3, and is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 18.1N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 18.6N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 19.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 20.2N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 20.5N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 20.8N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 21.3N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 22.9N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 25.4N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-08 10:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 080834 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 42.8W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 42.8W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 42.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.6N 43.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.2N 46.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N 48.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.8N 50.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.3N 51.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.9N 54.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.4N 57.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 42.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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