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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-08 22:30:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 082030 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 Shear has started to take a toll on Paulette's structure. Convection is again primarily limited to the northeast quadrant with little signs of banding. It is certainly possible that convection will expand again tonight when Paulette is farther removed from the diurnal convective minimum, but for the moment it does not look like further intensification is imminent. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are still T-3.5/55 kt, and that is the basis for the intensity estimate. If convection does increase tonight, Paulette will have a brief window for further strengthening before an expected increase in southerly shear on Wednesday. At a minimum, Paulette's intensity should then level off, and it will probably begin to weaken. Later this week or over the weekend Paulette will have an opportunity to restrengthen, depending on its interaction with an upper-level low expected to be just west of the cyclone. The spread in the guidance at that point is very high ranging from near dissipation to a category 2 hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is mostly unchanged for now, but Paulette could certainly be much stronger or weaker over the weekend than currently forecast. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning, and therefore little change to the track forecast itself. Paulette should gradually turn westward by late Wednesday and then back toward the northwest later this week as a ridge to its north builds and weakens over the next several days. The model spread is high, since there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in exactly how far west Paulette will make it before it turns northwestward. Confidence in the forecast beyond 72 h remains low. The NHC forecast track is based heavily on the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 18.7N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 19.2N 45.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 19.9N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 20.7N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 26.5N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-08 22:29:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 082029 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 44.3W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 30SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 44.3W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.2N 45.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.9N 47.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 52.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 26.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 44.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-08 16:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 081433 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 Paulette's organization has noticeably improved since last night. The tropical storm is still sheared, with its outflow restricted to the southwest, however overnight AMSU imagery indicated that convection was beginning to wrap around the western portion of its circulation. The intensity estimate has been increased to 55 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Paulette has manged to strengthen despite the shear, and some additional short-term strengthening is certainly possible. It is not out of the question that Paulette could become a hurricane, at least briefly. The global models indicate that the shear will increase on Wednesday, which should cause Paulette's intensity to level off, and more likely, decrease. The NHC intensity forecast is just above the intensity consensus for the first 3 days, out of respect for Paulette's recent intensification above most of the guidance. By the weekend, Paulette's strength will heavily depend on its exact orientation relative to an upper-level low that is expected to be located west or southwest of the tropical storm. Some restrengthening could occur then, but the NHC forecast just shows a steady intensity, near the middle of the guidance suite. Paulette is forecast to turn generally west-northwestward or westward tonight and Wednesday as a mid-level ridge builds to its north. The guidance then indicates that late this week Paulette will turn northwestward when the ridge weakens. Differences in Paulette's forward speed on Wednesday and Thursday could result in a very different track late in the period since it affects the point at which the tropical storm will turn northwestward. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus throughout the 5-day period, but confidence in the forecast beyond 72 h is lower than normal due to high spread in the track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 18.4N 43.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 19.0N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 19.8N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 20.3N 47.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 20.6N 49.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 20.7N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 21.2N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.1N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 26.0N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-08 16:32:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081431 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 200 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 Rene is starting to pull away from the Cabo Verde Islands, though some of the outer rainbands are affecting the far northwestern islands. Although the tropical storm has a well-defined circulation, the convective banding features have not become any better organized since yesterday. The satellite classifications are largely unchanged and range from 25 to 37 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range. Based on all of this data, the initial intensity is again held at 35 kt. The tropical storm is moving westward at a faster pace of 14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Rene is expected to build westward, which should cause the cyclone to move westward to west-northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, the storm is expected to slow down and turn northwestward and then northward as it moves into a pronounced weakness in the ridge. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there are notable differences in where and how sharply Rene will recurve with the GFS on the right side of the guidance and the ECMWF on the left. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one, but still lies closer to the left side of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Although Rene has not strengthened since yesterday, the models continue to suggest that the storm will steadily strengthen during the next few days while it moves over relatively warm 26-27 C waters and remains in environment of low wind shear and high moisture. Beyond that time, increasing southwesterly wind shear and drier air should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the HCCA and IVCN models. Key Messages: 1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across portions of the western Cabo Verde Islands for a few more hours. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for those islands. 2. Rene will continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the western Cabo Verde Islands today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 16.5N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.8N 28.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 18.3N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 19.3N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 26.5N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 29.7N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-08 16:31:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 081431 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 43.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 43.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 43.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.0N 44.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.8N 45.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.3N 47.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.6N 49.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.7N 51.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.2N 52.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.1N 55.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 43.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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