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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-09 04:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090251 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020 Rene's circulation remains fairly robust based on a 08/2148Z ASCAT-A overpass. However, the overall convective pattern has eroded significantly, and this is reflected in the ASCAT scatterometer wind data only showing surface winds of about 25 kt. Allowing for some undersampling, plus a recent increase in convection near the center, the intensity has only been lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. Rene remains beneath a pronounced upper-level anticyclone and outflow is fairly symmetrical in all quadrants. The initial motion is 285/14 kt. There continues to be no significant change to previous forecast track or reasoning. Rene is expected to move generally west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next couple of days, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest on Friday and a motion toward the north on Saturday and Sunday. The latest NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on this developing steering flow pattern, thus the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA. Although Rene has weakened, a burst of strong convection with cloud tops colder than -80C has developed over and to the west of the center, while a fragmented band of convection has formed in the northern semicircle. These features strongly suggest that Rene is poised to restrengthen soon. Sea-surface temperatures are expected to be 26.0-26.5 deg C in the 24-60 h period, which are only marginal for strengthening to occur. However, mid-level humidity values are forecast to be near 70 percent and the cyclone is expected to remain under a favorable upper-level anticyclone during that time. Given these factors, slow but steady intensification is forecast, with Rene still expected to become a hurricane in 2-3 days. Thereafter, strong westerly to west-northwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25-30 kt is expected to cause Rene to weaken significantly on days 4 and 5. The new official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly lower than the previous intensity forecast, and is along the extreme upper portion of the guidance envelope and is above the intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 17.0N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 17.5N 31.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 18.4N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 19.3N 35.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 24.2N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 28.5N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 30.2N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-09 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090250 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.8N 46.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.2N 48.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 51.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.1N 52.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.9N 53.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 55.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-09 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090250 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 29.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 29.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 28.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.5N 31.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.4N 33.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.3N 35.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 41.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.2N 40.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 29.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-08 22:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 082034 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 Rene has not changed much throughout the day. The storm is producing deep convection that is loosely organized in bands around the center. The satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from earlier and range from 25 kt to 40 kt. Based on these data and the earlier ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is again held at 35 kt. The eastern-most bands of Rene are now pulling west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and the Tropical Storm Warning for those islands has been discontinued. Although Rene has struggled to maintain its intensity during the past 24 hours, the models insist that the cyclone will begin to take advantage of the generally conducive conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and relatively warm waters. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show Rene strengthening to a hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond that time, however, Rene will likely be moving into an environment of strong westerly wind shear, which should cause the storm to weaken in the 3-5 day time period. This forecast is largely an update of the previous one and closely follows the IVCN model. The tropical storm continues to move westward at 14 kt. There has been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge should continue to steer Rene westward to west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that time, the storm should slow down and gradually turn to the north and then to the northeast as it moves into a weakness in the ridge. There is a little less spread in the guidance this cycle, but there remain differences in the models concerning where and how sharply Rene recurves. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies close to the TVCA and TVCX consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.8N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 18.0N 32.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.9N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 21.3N 38.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.2N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 27.7N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 30.5N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-08 22:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 082033 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 27.9W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 27.9W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 27.2W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.0N 32.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 34.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 37.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.3N 38.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.2N 40.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.7N 42.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 30.5N 40.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 27.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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