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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 21

2020-09-12 04:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120253 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Paulette remains sheared and asymmetric, with all its deep convection north of its low-level center of circulation. Despite the shear, ASCAT-B data that just arrived showed maximum winds near or just over 55 kt. Since that instrument tends to under-sample the maximum winds, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. An upper-level low located to the west of Paulette is responsible for the southerly shear currently affecting the cyclone. Global model forecasts suggest that the shear will continue for another day or so, and only slight strengthening is likely through that period. By Sunday, the upper-level low will move farther southwest and the tropical cyclone will encounter a very favorable upper-air pattern. Paulette will likely strengthen further in response, possibly at a fast rate. All of the intensity guidance indicates that Paulette will be a hurricane when it nears Bermuda early Monday, and it could approach major hurricane strength early next week. The NHC intensity forecast has not changed since the last advisory. It is worth mentioning that Paulette could experience a period of slow development for the next 24 hours, followed by quick intensification, rather than the more steady strengthening shown by the NHC forecast. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette will likely be nearest to Bermuda. Paulette has jogged slightly right of track during the past few hours, but the overall NHC forecast track is not different from the previous advisory. A building mid-level ridge to the north of Paulette will likely steer the tropical storm generally west-northwestward or northwestward for the next 2-3 days. The cyclone is then expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The model spread remains relatively low, especially for the first few days. Confidence is high that Paulette will move near Bermuda early Monday, though it is still too soon to specify exactly how close it will get. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids and is not far from any of the global model forecast. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming more likely. A tropical storm watch is in effect and a hurricane watch could be required for the island early Saturday. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 25.8N 54.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 27.1N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 29.6N 61.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 33.8N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 37.0N 60.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 21

2020-09-12 04:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120249 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 54.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 54.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 54.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.1N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.6N 61.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.8N 65.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 37.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 54.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-09-12 04:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 120243 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Doppler radar data from Miami and satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually becoming better organized. The low-level center is estimated to be near the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection due to some northerly wind shear. Surface observations and satellite classifications support holding the initial intensity at 30 kt. The minimum pressure appears to be a little lower than before, now 1007 mb. The tropical depression is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A subtropical ridge extending from the southeast U.S. to the western Atlantic should steer the depression west-northwestward across south Florida tonight and Saturday morning and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken due to an approaching trough, but the trough is not expected to be strong enough to cause the cyclone to turn northward. Instead, the models suggest that a slow west-northwestward motion very near the northern Gulf coast is likely during the early and middle portions of next week. Although the models all show a relatively similar scenario, there is a fair amount of spread by the time the system nears the northern Gulf coast. The NHC track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the consensus aids. Several of the local National Weather Service forecast offices across the southeast U.S. will be launching weather balloons four times per day, which should provide the models with excellent data in hopes to provide better track guidance during the next couple of days. Since the depression is expected to move over very warm SSTs, once it reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, and remain in an environment of low wind shear and high moisture, gradual strengthening seems likely. The models suggest that there could be an increase in westerly shear around the time the cyclone is forecast to move inland along the northern Gulf coast in about 4 days. Based on these expected environmental conditions, strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the IVCN and HCCA models. The depression will likely be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast. Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at 96 h is around 150 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to produce isolated flash flooding over portions of central and southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible overnight and early Saturday along the southeast Florida coast where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Sunday night in portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana late this weekend and early next week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 25.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 26.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/0000Z 26.8N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 27.9N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 28.8N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 29.3N 86.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 29.7N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 30.2N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/0000Z 31.3N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-09-12 04:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120242 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF * OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEHWERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 79.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 79.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.8N 82.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.9N 84.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.8N 85.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.3N 86.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.7N 87.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 30.2N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.3N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 79.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 20

2020-09-12 04:41:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 120241 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Deep convection has persisted near the center of Rene since this afternoon and a couple of earlier microwave overpasses suggest that there has been an increase in banding over the southwestern portion of the circulation. Despite what appears to be an increase in organization, recent ASCAT data indicated that this has not translated into an increase in intensity. The scatterometer data still supports an initial wind speed of 35 kt. Environmental conditions are forecast to generally be conducive for some strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, however with Rene continuing to struggle to intensify the NHC wind speed prediction has again been reduced during the that time. By 36-48 hours, Rene is expected to move beneath an area of strong upper-level west-northwesterly flow, and this increase in shear is expected to cause weakening. The ECMWF and GFS models significantly weaken Rene after 72 hours, with the ECMWF showing dissipation before the end of the forecast period. For now, the official forecast calls for Rene to weaken to a tropical depression by day 4, but it is possible that the system will degenerate into a trough of low pressure before day 5. Rene is moving west-northwestward or 295/12 kt. The cyclone should turn toward the northwest as it moves around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. In a couple of days, a mid-level high is predicted to build to the northwest of Rene, which should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn westward, and then west-southwestward later in the forecast period. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement and the various consensus aids remained close to the previous official forecast. Therefore, the new NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 21.4N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 22.4N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 25.7N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 26.8N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 27.1N 47.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 26.8N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 25.9N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 24.8N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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