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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-09-12 10:59:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120859 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 80.7W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 80.7W AT 12/0900Z...INLAND AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 80.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.1N 82.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.9N 83.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.9N 85.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 86.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.3N 87.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.6N 88.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 30.5N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 80.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 21

2020-09-12 10:44:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 120844 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Deep convection associated with Rene appears to have lost some organization overnight. Although there have been several pulsating bursts of convection overnight, the convection that was persistent over the center during the evening is now confined to the southern portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 35 kt, but this could be generous. ASCAT data later this morning should help to determine if Rene is still a topical storm. Mid-level dry air appears to be the primary reason why Rene has struggled to strengthen over the past few days, and although the shear is expected to remain low today, the dry air is likely to prevent strengthening. On Sunday, Rene is forecast to approach an area of strong west-northwesterly flow aloft, and this increase is shear is likely to cause the cyclone to weaken. Most of the global models continue to significantly weaken Rene early next week, and both the ECMWF and GFS suggest that the cyclone will degenerate into a trough of low pressure by days 4 or 5. The NHC forecast continues to maintain Rene as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period, but if the current trends it is becoming unlikely that Rene will survive as a tropical cyclone for the entire 5-day period. Rene has turned northwestward and is now moving at 305/13 kt. A northwestward motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic should continue for another 12 to 24 hours, but by late Sunday Rene is forecast to slow down as ridge of high pressure builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone. Later in the period, Rene is forecast to turn westward and then southwestward under the influence of the building ridge. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and no significant changes to the official forecaster were required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 22.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.7N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 25.4N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 26.6N 47.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 27.2N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 27.1N 48.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 24.7N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 21

2020-09-12 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 120843 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 43.5W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 43.5W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 42.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.7N 44.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.4N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.6N 47.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.2N 47.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.1N 48.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 24.7N 55.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 43.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 22

2020-09-12 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120843 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cyclone's cloud pattern has improved during the past several hours and that Paulette maybe on the cusp of becoming a hurricane very soon. An Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) overpass suggested that the cyclone has a much less vertical tilt and deep convective banding is developing in the south and east portions of Paulette. The subjective and objective satellite intensity T-numbers haven't changed from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals some decrease in the shear magnitude and the upper wind pattern has become much more diffluent. The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS and the large-scale models indicate that the shear will relax soon, and Paulette should become a hurricane today and further strengthen to a major hurricane early Tuesday. The SHIPS statistical-dynamical model indicates this scenario occuring earlier, Monday evening. The official intensity forecast is nudged slightly higher than the previous one and is close to the the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach intensity model. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette will likely be nearest to Bermuda. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/15 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge/Bermuda high north of the cyclone should continue to build across the western Atlantic and steer Paulette west-northwestward for the next 36 hours. Afterward, a turn toward the northwest to north-northwest with a significant increase in forward speed is expected early Monday and Monday evening in response to an approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough. The track guidance suite remains tightly clustered with just some minor forward speed differences beyond day 3, so it's quite certain that Paulette will move near Bermuda early Monday, though it's a little too early to specify the exact closest approach. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory and once again is based on the various multi-model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming increasingly likely. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch have been issued for the island. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 26.8N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 28.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 33.5N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 35.2N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 38.2N 56.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 41.5N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-09-12 10:42:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 56.1W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 300SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 56.1W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.5N 65.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.2N 63.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 38.2N 56.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 41.5N 49.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 56.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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