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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-09-11 22:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 112050 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 41.1W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 41.1W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 40.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 44.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.9N 46.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.4N 47.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 26.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 25.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 41.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-11 22:50:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 112050 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Paulette inconveniently fell in a gap between all three ASCAT passes this morning, so we haven't gotten any better handle on the cyclone's intensity since last evening's pass. However, Dvorak classifications have not budged, so maintaining the initial intensity of 55 kt seems sound. In addition, although an AMSR microwave pass from around 17 UTC still showed the system being sheared, it also revealed a ragged mid-level eye feature. Since the shear is expected to abate to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, Paulette is likely to intensify, possibly significantly so, and it is now forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. The intensification trend is expected to continue through day 4, and Paulette has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda on Monday. Paulette's forecast peak intensity (on day 4) has been nudged up slightly, lying near the SHIPS and HCCA guidance, but still a little below the latest HWRF simulation. Paulette has picked up some speed and is now moving toward the northwest (310 degrees) at 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed since this morning. Paulette should maintain a motion toward the northwest or west-northwest during the next 2 to 3 days to the south of a weakening subtropical ridge. By day 3, a longwave trough is forecast to move across the northeastern United States, eroding the ridge eastward, and causing Paulette to recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the vicinity of Bermuda on Monday. After that time, Paulette is forecast to become embedded in the mid-latitude flow and accelerate northeastward toward the north Atlantic. The spread in the track guidance has continued to tighten up, which increases the confidence in the official track forecast. The updated forecast has been shifted slightly westward around the time that Paulette will be near Bermuda, and it is embedded among the usually-reliable GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA model solutions. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane during the next couple of days and make its closest approach to the island on Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming more likely, and a hurricane watch could be required for the island tonight or early Saturday. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 24.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 25.9N 55.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 27.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 28.7N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 29.8N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 31.1N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 32.6N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-09-11 22:50:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 112049 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 53.7W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 53.7W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 53.2W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.9N 55.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.7N 59.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.8N 62.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.1N 64.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.6N 65.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-09-11 16:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 111444 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Despite what is being analyzed as roughly 40 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear, Paulette's center is embedded beneath the cirrus canopy of a strong convective burst to the north. Recent microwave images do confirm, however, that the center remains displaced from the convection. We have not yet received new scatterometer data over Paulette, and since the structure has not degraded from overnight, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. This is in best agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Paulette appears to have turned toward the northwest (305/9 kt) based on center fixes over the past 12 hours. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is beginning to develop to the north of Paulette, which should allow the cyclone to maintain a motion toward the northwest or west-northwest during the next 3 days. After that time, a longwave trough forecast to move across the northeastern United States is expected to erode the ridge eastward, causing Paulette to recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the vicinity of Bermuda on days 4 and 5. Except for some minor speed differences, the track models agree on this general trajectory and have less east-to-west spread during the recurvature phase than they did yesterday. The GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State Superensemble aids all lie along the western side of the guidance envelope at the time of recurvature, and as a result the new NHC track has been nudged a little west of the previous prediction during that period in deference to those normally reliable models. The shear affecting Paulette is forecast to abate over the next 48 hours while the storm also moves over warmer ocean waters and into a more unstable environment. Given the cyclone's hardiness in the face of the ongoing shear, Paulette is unlikely to have problems responding to the improving environment. Paulette is now forecast to become a hurricane in 36 hours, which is supported by the latest dynamical hurricane models, the superensemble aids, and the IVCN intensity consensus. Continued strengthening is anticipated after 36 hours, with Paulette likely to reach a peak intensity in 4-5 days. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 23.6N 52.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 24.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 30.2N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 31.6N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 58.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-09-11 16:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 111443 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 52.2W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 52.2W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 51.7W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.6N 53.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.2N 62.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.6N 64.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 37.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 52.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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