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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-07 22:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 072034 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 The cyclone is getting better organized on its approach to the Cabo Verde Islands. Banding features are now well established over the western part of the circulation, and some smaller bands are filling in east of the center. The satellite intensity estimates currently range from 30 to 35 kt. Based on this data and the improved satellite appearance of the system, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Rene. Rene is the 17th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 17th named storm of any Atlantic season by 11 days. The previous record was Rita, which formed on September 18, 2005. Rene is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and it should continue moving in that direction with some increase in forward speed for at least the next few days while subtropical ridging builds westward to the north of the storm. Toward the end of the forecast period, a turn to the northwest is expected as Rene moves into a weakness in the ridge. The models have shifted eastward at the longer ranges, especially the ECMWF model, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction at days 3 through 5. Rene is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next few days as the storm is expected to remain over relatively warm water while moving through an environment consisting of low vertical wind shear and high amounts of moisture. An increase in southwesterly shear late this week and this weekend should end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is again an update of the previous one, and is now in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.1N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 16.3N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 17.8N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 18.6N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 19.6N 37.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 22.1N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 26.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-07 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 072031 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Recent visible imagery shows that Paulette's circulation has become better defined since this morning. There has also been some evidence of increased banding, however the tropical storm remains sheared, with deep convection occuring primarily in its northeast quadrant. Recent satellite-based intensity estimates range from just below to just above the 35-kt intensity estimate. The NHC forecast still calls for modest strengthening over the next day or two, and this seems like a good bet given the recent observed improvement of Paulette's organization and structure. Moderate shear and some surrounding dry air appear to be inhibiting factors for substantial intensification, though the HWRF is a notable outlier that forecasts Paulette to become a hurricane in about 48 h. No major changes to the official intensity forecast were required at this time, and the NHC forecast is between the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Paulette appears to have moved slowly toward the northwest during the past several hours. The guidance spread has increased a little, though the models all have the same general idea. For the next 12 to 24 hours, Paulette will be embedded in an area of weak steering flow, though reformations of the center closer to the convection could result in a northwest to north-northwestward motion. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central North Atlantic in a day or two and this should cause Paulette to turn back toward the west. The NHC forecast is slightly north of the previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 17.5N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.9N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.8N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 19.6N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 20.8N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 21.1N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 21.8N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.0N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-07 22:30:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 849 WTNT22 KNHC 072030 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.4W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.4W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.9N 42.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.6N 45.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.8N 48.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N 50.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.8N 53.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 42.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-07 16:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 071439 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Visible imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation of Paulette is quite elongated from southwest to northeast. However, the ASCAT data indicated that winds up to tropical-storm-force were present, and this was corroborated by a 35 kt Dvorak-based intensity estimate from TAFB. Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe, which formed on September 17, 2005. Although it is elongated, the tropical storm's structure seems to have improved over the past few hours, with convection increasing in both coverage and organization. Although moderate southerly shear and some dry environmental air appear to be limiting factors, most of the intensity guidance suggests that modest strengthening is likely for the next couple of days. Near the end of the week, the models indicate that Paulette's winds will plateau or possibly decrease. This appears to be the result of increasing southwesterly shear associated with a upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen over the central Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. The official intensity forecast remains very near the multi-model consensus. Paulette has moved very little during the past few hours, but a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume shortly. Fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge over the western and central Atlantic will likely cause Paulette's exact speed and heading to fluctuate during the next several says, but the guidance agrees that it should generally head northwestward through the end of the week. It is likely that the stronger Paulette gets, the farther north it will move since the aforementioned upper-level trough will have a greater influence on its track. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the previous forecast and the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.2N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 18.7N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 20.7N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 21.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 23.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-07 16:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 071436 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 42.2W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 42.2W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 42.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.7N 44.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.6N 46.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 40SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 21.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 42.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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