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Remnants of Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 21

2020-08-16 22:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162033 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Josephine Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 The low-level swirl seen in visible satellite imagery has become less defined this afternoon, and ASCAT surface wind data that arrived shortly after the release of the previous advisory indicated that Josephine had degenerated into a trough of low pressure. As a result, this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The ASCAT revealed a small area of 30-kt winds along the northeast side of the trough axis, and that will be the initial wind speed for this advisory. The remnants are forecast to continue encountering a hostile upper-level wind environment over the next couple of days and re-generation of the system is not expected during that time. The strong upper-level winds are forecast to decrease later in the week, but it appears that there will not be much left of the system to take advantage of those conditions. The remnants are moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and should turn northwestward and northward over the next couple of days as a low- to mid-level trough moves near the southeastern U.S. coast. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Future information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 20.9N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-08-16 22:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162033 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2020 The depression has been devoid of organized deep convection for the past 24 hours and at the moment completely lacks any convection. Therefore the depression has become post-tropical as a non-convective remnant low. A recent ASCAT overpass showed the vortex is winding down and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. There are no indications that the atmospheric conditions that led to the demise of the depression will change much over the next few days. Therefore, regeneration of the system appears unlikely. The remnant low of the depression is moving northwestward at 3 kt. The low is forecast to move slowly over the next few days before it dissipates, making a gradual turn to the west, then west-southwest and perhaps southwest. This is the last advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 14.2N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/0600Z 14.5N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 14.7N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 14.7N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 14.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 14.2N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z 13.8N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1800Z 12.6N 140.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Remnants of Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 21

2020-08-16 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 162032 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 65.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 65.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 65.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 65.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-08-16 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 162032 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 134.1W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 134.1W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 134.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.5N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.7N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.7N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.2N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.8N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 12.6N 140.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 134.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-08-16 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The deep convection has decreased in coverage over the cyclone today, but the center remains underneath clouds tops of about -60 C. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, but this may be a little generous based on late-arriving ASCAT overpass data. There is no change to the forecast intensity philosophy. Fausto has crossed the 26 C SST isotherm and will be heading towards waters cooler than 24 C by Monday morning. Therefore a weakening trend is expected to begin soon. The deep convection should decrease and the cyclone is forecast degenerate to a remnant low Monday night. Fausto has accelerated and is now moving northwestward at around 17 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the cyclone loses its convection, it should turn west or just south of west as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 24.1N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 24.3N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 23.9N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 23.2N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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