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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-15 10:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 68.0W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 68.0W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 39.7N 64.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.0N 60.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.1N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 42.8N 52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 43.2N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 42.9N 40.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.7N 68.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-15 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150238 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Deep convection has redeveloped over the southern and western portions of the depression's circulation this evening, however, the low-level center remains exposed due to moderate to strong northeasterly shear. There has been little change to the satellite intensity estimates since this afternoon and no recent scatterometer data. As a result, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The northeasterly shear preventing the depression from strengthening is not forecast to abate over the next 2-3 days, and no significant change in intensity is forecast during that time. If the cyclone survives into early next week, the shear is forecast to lessen, which could allow for some modest strengthening later in the period. The NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the latest statistical guidance and the multi-model intensity consensus. The depression is meandering westward or 260/3 kt. The cyclone is not expected to move very far over the next several days. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system is forecast to steer the depression west-southwestward to westward over the next day or so, but as the ridge weakens and changes orientation a slow northwestward motion is expected by early next week. While there remains some spread in the model guidance, they generally agree that the depression will not move much through the forecast period, and little overall change to the previous forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 13.4N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 13.3N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 13.5N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.2N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 14.4N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 14.0N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-08-15 04:37:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 150237 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.5N 134.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.2N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 14.4N 136.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 14.0N 137.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 133.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-15 04:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150237 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 Josephine continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and to the northeast of its center, however, there is little evidence of any banding features. A fortuitous ASCAT-A overpass has revealed peak winds of 35-40 kt over the northern semicircle of the storm, and the scatterometer ambiguities along with the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the circulation is still closed. Based on the scatterometer data, the initial wind speed has been set at 40 kt. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous forecast. The moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear that is affecting the cyclone is forecast to increase over the weekend and reach values of around 30 kt on Sunday. This is expected to result in gradual weakening by the latter portion of the weekend, and Josephine is predicted to weaken to a tropical depression in about 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 3-4 days. A plausible alternate scenario that is suggested by some of the global models is for the circulation to open up into a trough of low pressure, resulting in dissipation of the tropical cyclone within the next few days. The timely ASCAT data was very helpful in determining Josephine's center location. Based on that and the earlier aircraft fixes, the cyclone continues to move west-northwestward or 300/14 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of Josephine should steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next 24-48 hours. After that time, Josephine should turn northwestward, and then northward as a weakness develops in the ridge over the western Atlantic. By late in the period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The latest official forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical track models, and is very similar to the previous NHC advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 18.3N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 19.2N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 20.4N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 21.7N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 23.2N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 24.7N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 26.4N 67.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 29.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z 33.0N 64.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-08-15 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150236 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 57.4W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 57.4W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 56.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N 59.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.4N 61.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N 63.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.2N 65.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 67.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.4N 67.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 33.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 57.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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