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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-16 16:46:06| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020
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depression
Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-08-16 16:45:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 161445 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 134.0W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 134.0W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.3N 134.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.9N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.4N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 12.2N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 134.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-16 16:45:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 708 WTPZ41 KNHC 161444 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Deep convection with cloud tops at around -70 C has persisted over the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. All available Dvorak T-numbers have been on the increase, and an initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak estimates from both SAB and TAFB. This makes the cyclone the sixth tropical storm of the 2020 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Fausto is crossing the 26 C SST isotherm and is expected to reach waters cooler than 24 C by Monday morning. Therefore it is likely that we are witnessing Fausto's peak intensity now. With the cooler waters, the convection should gradually decrease and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in about 2 days. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Fausto has increased its forward speed a bit and is now moving northwestward at around 13 kt. A slightly faster forward speed and a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected through tonight along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the cyclone loses its convection, it should turn westward or just south of westward as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 20.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 22.3N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 23.6N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 24.1N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 24.0N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 22.9N 133.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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discussion
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tropical
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-16 16:44:34| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-16 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 161444 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 119.6W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 119.6W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 121.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.6N 124.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.1N 127.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.0N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.6N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.9N 133.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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