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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-15 16:41:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151441 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 65.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 65.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 66.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.8N 62.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 40.8N 58.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 41.7N 54.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 42.2N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 42.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 65.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-08-15 16:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151433 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Josephine has a sheared cloud pattern in satellite imagery this morning, with the low-level center located near the western edge of the main convective area. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the storm reported flight-level winds as high as 47 kt at 925 mb, along with surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of 35-40 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The aircraft also reported that, while the area of westerly winds south of the center was small, the circulation is still closed and that the central pressure was near 1008 mb. The storm has moved a little to the left since the last advisory, with the motion now west-northwestward or 290/14 kt. Other than that, there is little change in the forecast track or the forecast track philosophy. During the next 2-3 days, Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward to the south and southwest of a subtropical high pressure area. After that, the system is forecast to re-curve to the north and north-northeast through a break in the western portion of the high. The new NHC forecast lies to the the center of the tightly- clustered guidance and near the various consensus models. Josephine is expected to remain in an environment of moderate to strong westerly shear for at least the next 48-60 h. This should cause the system to weaken, with the new intensity forecast now calling for Josephine to weaken to a depression between 36-48 h and degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h. Several global models forecast the cyclone to degenerate to a tropical wave before 72 h, and this remains a viable alternative forecast scenario, especially considering how small the closed circulation is. There is a chance that Josephine or its remnants could encounter a less hostile environment after 72 h. However, it is unclear at this time whether there will be enough left of the system to take advantage of that. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands today and tonight to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 19.1N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 19.8N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 21.0N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 22.3N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 23.8N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 25.2N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 26.7N 69.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-15 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151432 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Tropical Depression Ten continues to produce a small area of convection in its southwest quadrant. It would be a stretch to say the convection is particularly organized, but it is persistent nonetheless. The intensity remains 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data and the lack of notable change to the depression's structure since last night. The depression continues to meander slowly westward, and while it could begin to gain some latitude later today, all of the reliable track models indicate that it won't move very much during the next 5 days. The current structure (or lack thereof) of the cyclone would suggest that it could become post-tropical or even dissipate in the near future. However, this is not supported by any of the dynamical guidance. In fact, looking 5 days ahead in the global and regional models, the depression is still there producing varying amounts of deep convection. The NHC forecast therefore continues to show the system persisting as a tropical depression through day 5. No changes of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast which remain near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 13.2N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 13.3N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 13.6N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.0N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 14.3N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 14.5N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 14.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 13.5N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-08-15 16:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 151432 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 60.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 60.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 59.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.8N 61.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.0N 64.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 66.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 67.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.2N 68.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.7N 69.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 60.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-15 16:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 979 WTPZ25 KNHC 151431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 133.7W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 133.7W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 133.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.3N 134.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 134.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.0N 134.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.3N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.5N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.3N 136.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 13.5N 137.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 133.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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