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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-08-16 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 288 WTNT21 KNHC 160234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 62.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 62.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.0N 64.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 66.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.7N 67.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.1N 68.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.1N 68.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 29.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 30.6N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 32.8N 64.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 62.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-16 04:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160232 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring well offshore the Baja California peninsula has become better defined during the past several hours, and it appears to have a well-defined center. Since deep convection has persisted near the center, it now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is already nearing cooler waters, and it is expected to cross the 26 C isotherm in about 12 hours. These cooler waters combined with a drier environment should prevent strengthening in the short term, and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, or maybe even sooner than that. The global models show the remnant low opening into a trough in 3 to 4 days. The initial motion is quite uncertain given that the system has only recently become well defined, but my best guess is north-northwestward at 10 kt. A strong mid-level ridge situated over the southwestern U.S. should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward soon and continue in that direction for the next couple of days. After that time, when the system is likely a shallow remnant low, a turn to the west is predicted as it is is steered by the low-level flow. The track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 18.4N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 20.3N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 22.5N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 24.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 24.9N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 25.3N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 24.7N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-16 04:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 118.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 118.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.3N 119.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.5N 121.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.9N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.3N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.7N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-16 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160231 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The depression is barely a tropical cyclone. The deep convection that was located along the southern side of the circulation earlier today has nearly completely dissipated, and the system currently looks like an ITCZ low-level cloud swirl. The initial intensity is held generously at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. The cyclone is currently experiencing strong northeasterly wind shear, and given that the shear is expected to remain strong for another day or so, this system could degenerate into a remnant low during that time. However, the shear is expected to lessen after that, and if the depression survives, it could linger for several more days. The models show little change in strength, and the NHC prediction keeps the system steady in intensity through the forecast period. Since the depression is caught in weak steering currents between a low pressure system to its east-northeast and a narrow ridge to its northwest, it has not moved much during the past several hours. As the low east-northeast of the system pulls northward, the weak depression, or its remnants, should generally drift northwestward during the next couple of days and then southwestward after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 13.1N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 14.3N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 14.1N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 13.2N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 12.7N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-08-16 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 797 WTPZ25 KNHC 160231 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 133.8W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 133.8W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 133.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.3N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.1N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.8N 135.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 13.2N 136.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 12.7N 136.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 133.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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