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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-16 10:43:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160842 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.4N 120.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.3N 123.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.4N 126.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.7N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.3N 130.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.8N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 119.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-16 10:42:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160841 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The depression continues as a marginal tropical cyclone. A small burst of deep convection formed over the southwestern portion of the circulation, but there is no evidence of convective banding. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a partial scatterometer overpass, but slightly above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The depression is expected to remain in an environment of northeasterly shear for the next several days, so no change in strength is called for during the forecast period. It should be noted that if the cyclone were to lose its convection for an extended time during the period, it would degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low. The cyclone is drifting northward, or about 360/02 kt, while embedded in weak steering currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the system during the next few days. This should cause the depression to turn toward the west and west-southwest, albeit at a very slow forward speed, during the period. This is in line with the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 14.0N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 13.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 12.3N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-08-16 10:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 160840 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.8W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.8W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 133.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 134.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.0N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.5N 136.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 13.0N 137.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 12.3N 138.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 133.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-16 04:38:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160238 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Although Kyle continues to lose its overall tropical appearance, a burst of deep convection redeveloped, albeit sheared to the northeast of the low-level center, which is close enough to the center to still the system classified as a tropical cyclone. ASCAT-A/-B passes at 2333Z/0047Z easily supported winds of 35 kt south through southwest of the center and, allowing for some slight undersampling, the initial intensity has thus been lowered to 40 kt. The initial motion is 075/17 kt. There is no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Kyle is expected to continue moving east-northeastward tonight and Sunday morning, maintaining that eastward motion until the cyclone is absorbed into a larger extratropical low in a couple of days. The official forecast similar to the previous advisory track and essentially lies near the center of the NHC track guidance envelope. Kyle's low-level center is becoming increasingly stretched out northeast-to-southwest and the earlier burst of deep convection has also recently begun to wane, succumbing to 40 kt of westerly deep-layer vertical wind shear. Thus, Kyle is not long for this world, with the cyclone expected to lose all convection within the next 6 to 12 hours, and continue to weaken and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone Sunday morning. It is highly possible that the next advisory could be the last forecast on Kyle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 40.0N 60.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 40.6N 57.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0000Z 41.1N 53.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1200Z 41.2N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-16 04:37:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 761 WTNT22 KNHC 160237 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 60.4W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 60.4W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 40.6N 57.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 41.1N 53.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 41.2N 49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 60.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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