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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-08-15 22:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 890 WTNT21 KNHC 152034 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 61.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 61.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 61.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.8N 63.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.1N 65.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.4N 67.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.3N 69.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 28.0N 69.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 30.5N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 61.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-15 22:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 889 WTNT41 KNHC 152034 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Josephine continues to feel the effects of westerly shear, and the low cloud swirl denoting the center is partly exposed at the western edge of the convection. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed significantly since the earlier recon flight, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Animation of satellite imagery suggests that the low-level circulation is at best barely closed, but there is insufficient evidence right now to justify a downgrade to a tropical wave. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system near 0000Z. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/15 kt. It sounds like a broken record, but there is little change to either the forecast guidance or the forecast track since the last advisory. For the next 36-48 h, Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward on the southwest side of the subtropical ridge. After that, the system is forecast to recurve to the north and north-northeast through a break in the western portion of the ridge. As before, the new NHC forecast lies near the the center of the tightly-clustered guidance and near the various consensus models. Josephine is expected to remain in an environment of moderate to strong westerly shear for at least the next 48-60 h which should cause the system to weaken. The intensity forecast, which assumes some sort of closed circulation will last for 5 days, now calls for the system to weaken to a depression between 24-36 h and become a remnant low by 60 h. An alternative scenario is that the system degenerates to a tropical wave, which could occur at almost any time given the state of the circulation. There is a chance that Josephine or its remnants could encounter a less hostile environment after 72 h. However, it remains unclear at this time whether there will be enough left of the system to take advantage of those favorable conditions. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine is passing far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 20.0N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 20.8N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 22.1N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 23.4N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 26.3N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 28.0N 69.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z 30.5N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-15 22:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For a brief time this morning, the depression actually developed a broken band of convection that wrapped nearly halfway around the cyclone. However, it didn't persist for long and convection is mostly once again limited to the southwest quadrant. Scatterometer data valid shortly before 18Z supported an intensity of 30 kt. The depression has been nearly stationary for the past several hours after drifting west-southwestward most of the morning. It is forecast to meander for the next several days with little change in structure, strength, or position as it continues to encounter strong upper-level winds but weak low- to mid-level steering flow. Near the end of the forecast period, the GFS indicates that the depression could interact with another low related to current invest 94E, which would cause the depression to move eastward. There is very low confidence in this scenario, and it is not supported by most of the other models. Due to the GFS outlier solution, the model consensus has shifted substantially eastward, however the NHC forecast has only been slightly adjusted in that direction. Given the continued lack of particularly well organized convection, it is possible that the system could either become a remnant low or open into a trough, though neither of those scenarios is explicitly supported by the global or hurricane models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 13.0N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 13.1N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 13.6N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 14.1N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 13.4N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 13.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-15 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 152032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 133.7W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 133.7W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 133.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.1N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.6N 134.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.1N 135.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 13.4N 136.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 13.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 133.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-15 16:42:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151442 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 The exposed center of Kyle has become elongated this morning. Deep convection remains limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, a consequence of strong upper-level westerly winds. Despite the shear, there are indications that Kyle's winds have increased. A ship (KABP) recently reported 50 kt winds just to the south of Kyle's center. Although the observation was elevated, it still supports increasing the intensity to 45 kt. Kyle will continue to move quickly east-northeastward away from the coast of the U.S. and well south of the Canadian Maritimes today. The tropical storm is being steered by a mid- to upper-level trough and will likely continue on its general heading and speed for the day or so, followed by a turn toward due east by early Monday. The tropical storm has remained over the Gulf Stream thus far, which is likely helping it to maintain its tropical structure in the face of an otherwise hostile upper-air environment. Some additional strengthening is possible today or early Sunday before Kyle becomes post-tropical. The exact timing of that transition is still somewhat uncertain, but it is clear that Kyle will become an extratropical cyclone by early next week. After becoming post-tropical, gradual weakening is anticipated until the system becomes poorly-defined and is absorbed by a larger extratropical low by the middle of the week, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 39.0N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 39.8N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 40.8N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 41.7N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z 42.2N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/0000Z 42.5N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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